Game Time: San Diego State

When:  Saturday, September 24, 2011 - Noon ET

Where:  Ann Arbor, Michigan

Spread:  Michigan -10.5

TV:  BTN

You'll be Listening to:  Eric Collins, Chris Martin, and Dionne Miller

Weather:  Few Showers, High of 66.  60 and Rainy at kickoff.  Chance of rain = 30%

What to look for

Hand wringing and white knuckles.  We've all heard about how much this game means to the Aztecs and rightfully so.  They feel abandoned by their coach who left them because they weren't Michigan and informed them of this via text message (they were on Christmas vacation).  This is the game they've had circled on their calenders for the last nine and a half months.  So yeah, they're gonna come out firing.

The Aztecs are going to try and get their main weapon on offense, Ronnie Hillman, going early. Then they will look to capitalize via play action.  The defense will blitz on every snap and it will always be coming from a different place.  Chaos is what they are going for.  We will see what the 3-3-5 can be when it is taught and used properly.  This will cause problems.

What will happen

Hillman will look like a beast and do damage in chunks early.  The Atzecs will try to get him the ball through the air as well.  On the ground, expect a lot of counters and misdirection to try and get the 'backers flowing the wrong way so the OL can pin them where they want them.  Play action medium and deep balls will follow and the short passing game and screens will fill in the gaps.  Michigan will try to get Hillman off track early with some run blitzes and some DL slants with blitzers coming away from the slant.  If Kovacs has to get too involved in the run game, look out.  Michigan will do everything they can to win first down defensively to force SDSU into second and third and long.  That may seem like a stupid statement because when don't they want that, but I think that will be over-emphasized this week.

Offensively, Denard has got to get a few easy throws to start the game.  Borges knows it, and so do the Aztecs.  Look for them to play a little press coverage early to try and take away the short easy stuff so Denard can't get warmed up.  I expect the Willie 'backer or the Rover to be assigned to spy Denard on the Zone Read and completely ignore everyone else on the field.  If Michigan can get some damage done by giving the ZR, then they might be able to force a change on that.

Denard will throw the ball better this week and I hope he doesn't have to carry it nearly as much as last week.  I hope that, but I don't think it'll be the case.  SDSU will jump out to an early lead and will play solid field position from there.  Denard will be forced to carry the load to try and keep up.  The 3-3-5 will give him and the OL trouble all day, and expect to see a couple of turnover come from the pressure.  Can you tell this game makes me nervous?

Completely baseless prediction

I think I proved last week why I call this completely baseless.  My predictions last week were as awful as possible (okay a few of them were right).  This may be the toughest game all season to predict, but here goes:

• Hillman goes for over 150 and a pair of TDs
• The WRs finally come to life
• Too vague on that last one?  Fine, both Roundtree and Hemmingway go for 60+ and a TD.
• Michigan misses a pair of FGs, SDSU does not
• San Diego State 27, Michigan 21