A couple of hours ago, Michigan received it's 20th commit for the class of 2012 in the form of Salt Lake City fullback Sione Houma. This was a mild surprise, at least to me, simply because Houma had been pretty silent about favorites and recruiting in general. In comparison, Spring, TX fullback E.J. Fatu had been public about stating that Michigan was his leader on more than one occasion. Perhaps that had something to do with Houma pulling the trigger, as he will now be filling the FB spot the coaches wanted in this class and Fatu will have to look elsewhere. Let's have a look at the newest Wolverine:
Sione rushed for over 1200 yards and was first team All State in Utah as a junior as the dive back in a wishbone offense. I have no idea what the caliber of football in the state of Utah is so that doesn't mean too much to me. Utah and BYU are fairly good programs though, and you have to think that they get a lot of their kids from their own backyard, so here's hoping it's pretty decent.
There is a lot to like about his film. When he is in traffic, he has good pad level most of the time and he protects the football well. He shows the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and shows pretty decent speed and burst on a few occasions. He's even versatile enough to return kicks. Unfortunately, his film shows exactly zero plays of him blocking. If you've watched a pro-style or even a West Coast style offense you know that the fullback will be called on to block 98% of the time. Yes he will get a pass in the flat off of playaction from time to time and maybe even a short yardage or goal line handoff occasionally, but his job is to lead block and I'd like to see some of it. Oh well, I'd like the winning lottery numbers too but whatever.
I will be playing fullback most of the time. I don't mind playing fullback or running back, just as long as I get a chance to play.
Sound like a fullback to me. Welcome, Sione.
Looking Forward
As you have probably heard at this point, the U-M football office has confirmed that incoming freshman Kellen Jones is no longer enrolled in school and RB Teric Jones and C Christian Pace are medical casualties and will no longer be able to play football. DT Terry Talbott may end up on the medical casualty list eventually as well. I knew Pace and Talbott had been struggling with serious injuries (Pace with his knees and Talbott with his back) but I didn't know Teric Jones' knee injury last year was that bad. As for Kellen Jones, there are enough nasty rumors going around about what happened with him and I don't care to fan the flames of speculation, especially since I don't know anything about it just like everyone else. Whatever the situation, it is unfortunate and I wish him and all these guys the best.
With these 3 (maybe 4) guys gone from the team, we are starting to get a clearer picture where all the scholarships are going to come from to get this class to 26. There still aren't that many available yet, but it is getting closer. As for those that may think that Michigan 'wasted' a scholarship by using it on a FB like Houma when they are in on a boatload of highly ranked talent at other positions, you don't know your football. FB is a huge piece of this offense and Michigan has none. Okay, Joey Kerridge is freshman walk-on and there has been some speculation that someone like a Desmond Morgan could move over and be a FB, but essentially John McColgan is your FB next year and then he's gone leaving no one. Maybe Kerridge turns out to be a great FB or maybe someone that gets transplanted in turns out to be useful but this position is too valuable for maybe. That's not to say that Houma is a sure thing, because none of these kids are, but I agree with the coaches that it's important enough that there must be more depth and it can't be left to a "hopefully we can get some kid that can play to walk on" situation.
In other recruiting news, Dwayne Stanford recently named a top five and Michigan is not in it. I don't think he has completely eliminated them, but it doesn't look good. No word on if that affects teammate Adolphus Washington. This could be the reasoning behind the recent offers out to Monty Madaris and Darius Powe, both of which look like solid targets.
It is also starting to look like the coaching staff is going to pass on a QB in this class. I'm not a fan of this, as I've stated before. I think you need to take a QB in every class. I understand the coaches thinking that they don't want to take a kid just to take him though. Tough call. I hope it works out.
With six(ish) spots left, here's what I'm thinking right this minute: OT Jordan Diamond (I know, I'm going back and forth on him), WR Aaron Burbridge, WR Amara Darboh, DE Chris Wormley, DT Ondre Pipkins, and DT Danny O'Brien. I would be ecstatic with that finish.
Oh, and Michigan is #2 in the initial Rivals Team Rankings. Nice to see that again. As always, stay tuned and Go Blue.
The Fighting Irish had their ups and downs over the course of their first year under new coach Brian Kelly. They began the season with a win over Purdue but then dropped three in a row to Michigan, Michigan State, and Stanford. Kelly righted the ship to win his next three contests, first on the road against Boston College and then back home against Pitt and Western Michigan. That was followed by two more losses to Navy and Tulsa, before winning out the remainder of their schedule over the likes of Utah, Army, USC, and Miami in the Sun Bowl.
Michigan and Notre Dame obviously played each other last year, so we will go into some depth on that game, and both teams played MSU and Purdue so we'll look at those two as well. Head to head first, some stats.
Another classic Michigan-Notre Dame game, this one in South Bend. Denard has a career day with 502 total yards propelling Michigan to the win. Looking at the numbers, Michigan ran the ball well and ND threw the ball well. Not surprising since that was the strong point of each team and what their offenses were geared towards. Total Offense was almost identical. The stat that should really jump out at you is the Turnover Margin (TOM). Michigan had a rare game in which it didn't turn the ball over and they enjoyed three Irish mistakes. Unsurprisingly, that's the difference in the game.
The Purdue game was the first game of the season for the Irish, not to mention the first game period for Kelly, and took place in South Bend. Michigan traveled to West Lafayette for their game against the Boilers. Both teams win by 11 and put up similar yardage totals. What jumps out at me is that Michigan only gave up 132 through the air and 256 total yards while allowing 2-11 on third down. Without actually looking, this must have been the best statistical game for the defense last year. Probably by far. Those numbers are even respectable. Turnovers didn't give either team much of an advantage, although it is worth noting that Michigan and Purdue managed to break even despite each turning the ball over FIVE times. Yikes. Notre Dame did not have a notable game in any aspect statistically, but that isn't odd considering it was the first game of year and Kelly didn't want to show anything with Michigan on the schedule the following week.
Both teams lose to Sparty, although ND shouldn't have - at least not on the play they did. If you don't recall, MSU ran a fake FG in overtime for a TD, but the play clock had clearly expired before the ball was snapped and the play should not have counted. Clock shenanigans in East Lansing? Hmm, where have I heard that before? Michigan gets pounded by Little Brother in A2, both on the scoreboard and in the stats. Both teams lose the TOM and are significantly outgained on the ground. Again, recipe for disaster every time.
I did not include the head to head into the averages so this is just the average from Purdue and MSU. Michigan ran the ball better, ND threw it better. ND scored more, gave up less, was better on third down, and was better on turnovers. These stats seem to not bode well for Michigan, but then again who won the game head to head? Exactly. Any Given [Saturday].
2010 Film
Some thoughts on the offensive side of the ball. First of all, I really like the route combinations that Brian Kelly's offense uses in the passing game. They are creative and designed extremely well and that is one of the main reasons why his passing attack has been so effective everywhere he's been. These combinations are designed to stress the defense, especially the secondary but also the linebackers, and forces defenders to have to read the route combinations and make smart decisions quickly or someone is going to be wide open. You will notice there are crossing and/or shallow routes on just about every pass play forcing linebackers that really don't like to play the pass and generally aren't very good at it to do so. This is smart football.
I also noticed/remembered that Dayne Crist can move very well. He can slide and give himself more time in the pocket as well as just tuck it and get upfield. He has decent speed and moves his feet well. I did not remember him being quite that fast and adept running with the ball. He will even pull it on the Zone from time to time with success. The main part of their running game comes on both the inside and outside Zone plays. There are some variations that they will throw in like designed cutbacks (good look at that at the 3:30 mark) as well as a counter play here and there. As I said, you must account for Crist on the Zone because he will pull it and has the ability to hurt you if you fall asleep on him.
Defensively, the Irish like to twist and stunt their defensive lineman a lot. This is useful on passing downs to try and confuse the offensive linemen and will often result in pressure on the quarterback. As I said, they do this a lot which means they are going to get caught doing it on a run play from time to time and if those d-linemen don't read run quick enough, they can and will run themselves right out of the play and create large running lanes. This must be taken advantage of. On the back end, I see a lot of zone, even in blitzing situations. There were several zone blitzes of varying effectiveness but I did not notice much Cover Zero blitzing. This isn't too uncommon as this was the first game and defensive coordinators tend to be uncomfortable doing that too much early in the season.
One thing the ND defense does seem vulnerable to is the bootleg. Obviously they will be more attentive to that with Denard in the game than they were against Purdue here, but the boot and waggle plays were both available on multiple occasions. In fact, Purdue seems to cause problems for ND whenever they move the QB whether it be on a bootleg or a sprintout or even just a half roll. Good to know. Also: Manti Te'o is good at football. Very good. Know where he is at all times.
Much of the same here. Shallow and crossing routes. Movement on the defensive line. One thing I noticed more in this game is that the ND defense really overpursued a lot, opening sometimes gaping cutback holes for Edwin Baker and company. A good example of this is at the 2:56 mark. MSU is lined up in an offset I right and the call is a stretch to the strength. ND aligns defensively in a 4-3 under. There are a lot of mistakes by individuals on the defense here, but for the purposes of not being overly detailed, I'll keep it fairly simple. The 3-tech DT (away from the TE) allows himself to get scooped by the LT which allows the LG to release almost immediately to the second level and seal the overpursued WLB. The NT did well with his first step and does not allow the C to swap hats with him. The result is a huge cutback hole, a 16 yard gain, and a first down near the red zone. Maybe this is just something MSU is good at doing to their opponents because they did the same things to Michigan with even greater success. Probably a little from both sides.
One other thing that plagued ND a little bit in this game was poor communication in the secondary. Players are passing off their receivers to the next zone without communicating to their teammates on the back end. A good look at this occurs at 3:18 on the same drive. MSU gets a wide open receiver for a TD to tie the game.
Offense
Notre Dame has fully moved into Brian Kelly's passing spread from the pro style they utilized under Charlie Weis. Kelly likes to spread the defense out to create mismatches with his receivers and uses creative route combinations to get guys open. Short passes with an emphasis on YAC yardage are the name of game. Ideally, nickle and dime passes will move the chains and force the defense to tighten up, at which point they can hit you over the top or take a short pass and turn it into a big gain with their athletic receivers. The running game consists almost completely of the Zone play, both inside and outside, with some wrinkles thrown in to change things up.
At QB, the Irish return Dayne Crist for his senior season and he is expected to be the starter. Last season, Crist was responsible for roughly two-thirds of the ND passing yards and a little more than half of the TD passes thrown. Specifically, he completed 59.2% of his throws for 2033 yards with 15 TDs and 7 picks. He did struggle with injuries a bit last year as you probably recall from him missing large parts of the Michigan game. When Crist couldn't go, sophomore to be Tommy Rees filled in and put up similar type numbers. Rees completed 61% of his passes for 1006 yards with 12 TDs and 8 INTs. Their passer ratings were almost identical as well. I expect that Crist will be the man this season when he's healthy, but it doesn't seem, at least statistically, that the Irish will be in too much trouble if Crist struggles with his health again this season. Having a capable backup, as Michigan fans are well aware, is invaluable to the success of a football team and ND has a good one waiting.
The rushing attack loses about half of its 1646 yards gained last year with the graduation of Armando Allen (finally) and Robert Hughes, but they do return leading rusher Cierre Wood for his junior year and his expected backup (?) senior Jonas Gray. M fans will recognize Gray's name from his recruitment when he was in high school at Detroit Country Day. Neither of these guys had all that many carried last year, as is expected in Kelly's offense. Wood had 119 carries for 603 yards (5.1 ypc) and three TDs, while Gray carried 20 times for 100 yards (5.0) and did not find the end zone. Wood was used a bit as a receiver out of the backfield and hauled in a respectable 20 balls for 170 yards and a pair of scores. I expect that there will be a solid split between these two guys very similar to the way Wood and Allen shared time last year. Kelly doesn't seem to be too concerned about having one guy carry the load, preferring to rotate and keep fresh legs in the game. Both of these guys are very talented and athletic and I wouldn't be shocked to see them both in the game at the same time in a full gun look.
At wide receiver, ND returns their best player IMO in Michael Floyd....maybe. Last season, Floyd hauled in 79 passes for 1025 yards and 12 TDs and is a major threat from anywhere on the field. Off the field issues this off-season created some doubt as to whether he would play for the Irish in his senior season. Floyd was suspended indefinitely in March after being arrested for DUI. Two months later, Kelly was a little more specific about his suspension saying that Floyd will either play in every game, or not at all:
We’re looking at Mike as an ‘all in or not’ situation. In other words, he’s changing his life or he’s not. If he changes the way he’s lived his life, he’ll play every game for us. If he doesn’t, he won’t play one down here at Notre Dame.
You can expect to see him on the field this season. Theo Riddick also returns and I expect this guy to have a breakout season. The 5'11", 198 pound junior out of New Jersey is the type of guy that will flourish in Brian Kelly's scheme and he showed flashes of that last season. He is electric and dangerous. Watch out for him. As a footnote to the receiving group, thank God Kyle Rudolph is gone. That guy was a nightmare.
The offensive line returns four of five starters from last year's team, losing only Guard Chris Stewart. Senior Guard Trevor Robinson, senior Center Braxston Cave, Junior Tackle Zack Martin, and 5th year Tackle Taylor Dever all return to anchor the OL. Andrew Nuss and Chris Watt will probably fight it out in fall camp to fill Stewart's vacant LG spot. Returning experience on the offensive line is priceless and the Irish return 63 career starts.
I would expect the offense to take a pretty large step forward in year two of the Brian Kelly regime. A senior QB, four returning starters on the OL, and athletes all around tend to mean success anyway, but factor in the offensive mind of Kelly and year of experience in his system and opposing defenses might be in a lot of trouble in 2011.
Defense
CB Darrin Walls, OLB Kerry Neal, and NT Ian Williams take a combined 94 starts out the door with them to graduation. Other than that, ND returns the rest of its defense. For the most part, ND runs a base 3-4, but like most teams, they are multiple. Manti Te'o is the leader of this defense and may be the best player on the football team.
Ethan Johnson and Kapron Lewis-Moore return to bookend the defensive line in their senior seasons. Lewis-Moore particularly can be a menace on the edge. Senior Sean Cwynar started a handful of games at NT last year when Williams was banged up and is expected to slide into the full time starting roll.
Juniors Te'o and Carlo Calabrese return to their spots at ILB and senior Darius Fleming will man his OLB job once again. The other OLB spot looks to be Steve Filer's to lose. I've already gushed a bit about Te'o, but the other two returning starters here can play too. If Filer can live up to his recruiting hype from a few years ago and lock down that other OLB spot, this should be the strength of the defense.
5th year Safety Harrison Smith anchors the ND secondary and returns his 93 tackles and seven picks from a year ago. Beside Smith on the back end may be junior Zeke Matta, who started eight games last year, or it may be the starter for last year's season opener Jamoris Slaughter. This will be a heated battle in the fall. CB Gary Gray returns for his final season on one edge of the field, but the other is up for grabs. Robert Blanton manned the nickle back spot for ND last season and has the most experience, so he may be the choice there, but if DC Bob Diaco likes Blanton at the nickle back and wants to keep him there, look for former highly sought after recruit Lo Wood to emerge at the other corner.
A lot of experience returns here and with an All-American like Te'o right in the middle of it, this could be a very good defense. Keeping key guys healthy will be big though (duh) as the backups are pretty green behind them.
Special Teams
David Ruffer returns to his kicking duties for his last season after hitting 37 of 40 PATs and 18 of 19 FGs with a long of 50 yards. Seems strange to me that he seems to struggle more with the extra point than with his FG attempts but the kicking atrocities in AA the last several years eliminate any room for me to talk about kicking in any manner. Junior Ben Turk returns after averaging 38.3 yards per punt last season. If you're wondering why his name sounds familiar like I was, his uncle Matt punts for the Houston Texans.
2011 Spring Game
The annual Blue-Gold game took place on a rainy April 16th and was televised on Versus. Pretty bland stuff as is the usual for a spring game but a good look at their basic stuff. Crist and Rees were pretty pedestrian and didn't play a whole lot as they combined for 12-25 for 95 and an INT by Rees. Early enrollee Aaron Lynch was disruptive all day from the DE spot and looks like a beast in the making.
LOL ETC.
I had to include this video posted just before the Michigan-ND game last season. This jackass embodies all the typical ND fan's delusional superiority and smugness and, well, jackassery that I find so amusing. Yes, there are plenty of people that say the same thing about Michigan fans and their attitudes and I've seen that as well, but there's nothing quite like this idiot. I'll just let him speak for himself. Enjoy.
Once again I have to give thanks for the use of the 2011 Notre Dame Football Spring Prospectus. It is packed with way more info on all the coaches and players, stats, articles, etc. If you want more info I highly recommend you head that way.
Yeah, so I've been away. Busy. Let's move on. Things have been good on the recruiting front all spring and summer and Michigan finds itself running out of spots in the class of 2012 in a hurry. Most recently, Coach Hoke and company have landed a Free Safety prospect that (potentially) hasn't been seen patrolling the Wolverine secondary in a long time, and also scored the highest ranked recruit to verbal so far.
First, the Safety. Jarrod Wilson stands 6'2" and weighs 190 pounds and comes to Ann Arbor from Akron, OH. His coach in high school is someone who you might be familiar with: Ricky Powers. Yes, that Ricky Powers. Coach Powers insists that he did not guide his star safety to A2, and I believe him, but I'm sure it didn't hurt either. Let's have a look:
A few things I took away from his film here. First, he plays the ball very well. You hear people talking about a Safety prospect and you will hear the phrase "ballhawk" or "nose for the football" just about every time. Just because a kid has a lot of interceptions, doesn't make him a ballhawk IMO. True ballhawks really anticipate the quarterback's throw and time their arrival perfectly. They also highpoint the football and snatch it out of the air, using their body to shield away the receiver in many cases. Ed Reed is the definition of ballhawk. This kid shows some of that potential. Understand, I am not saying OMG Jarrod Wilson = Ed Reed! All I'm saying is this kid has the potential to be good. Better than any FS Michigan's had in a long time.
Notre Dame and PSU were the other finalists for Wilson. He also held offers from UConn, MSU, Stanford, Tennessee, UCLA, and West Virginia among others. Jarrod is a four star to both sites, with Rivals rating him the #13 Safety and Scout #10. Here's what he had to say about his commitment to Michigan ($):
I went back and forth for a very long time, especially after I made my very last visit to Notre Dame," Wilson said. "I was thinking that all three of these schools were great, so I was trying to decide which one I could see myself living at for the next three to four to five years. That's what made Michigan stand out. When I got there, right away I had that gut feeling. Then, as I started to walk around the campus I just fell in love with it. It was just the family atmosphere down there. It felt like home to me, to be truthful.
This kid is smart and one of the biggest additions to this class. I could see him being the star of this class when we take a look back in 4-5 years and that's not a small statement considering the caliber of some of the other kids in this class. This also should close out the defensive backfield for the class of 2012.
The second recent pickup came last Sunday in the form of big Kyle Kalis from Lakewood, OH (St. Edward's). When I say big, I mean it on several different levels. First of all, he is a large human standing 6'5" and 305 pounds. Second of all, he is big in the fact that he is the highest ranked recruit Coach Hoke has landed in this already impressive class. Rivals rates him as four stars, the #4 OT, and #18 overall and Scout lists him as a five star, the #6 OT, and #21 overall. I'd bet good money that he gets his fifth star from Rivals as he is the very first four star on their list. The last reason Kalis is such a big pull is, of course, because he comes over from the dark side having previously been committed to OSU. Not only does Michigan get a very highly rated prospect but OSU loses out on him? Yes please. All day, yes please.
He also had offers from Alabama, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Miami, MSU, ND, PSU, Pitt, Rutgers, WVU, and Wisconsin to name a few. Again, yes please.
This film clip doesn't show you much (and how could it as it is absurdly short) and there isn't much else out there. Offensive linemen don't usually have a lot of film out there on YouTube or elsewhere, but usually someone this highly touted has more than a one minute clip.
So, my observations here will come mostly from some game film I've seen on Rivals and couple other places that I can't post here. Overall, he looks pretty damn good. He excels in the run game more than in pass pro, but that's not to say he looks bad in pass blocking. He really plays the part of a mauler on running plays, driving his man backwards and often pancaking him entirely. He doesn't always fire off the ball like I'd like to see, but he gets into his man and uses his strength and leverage very well. The only other thing I'd say is I'd like to see him keep his hands inside a little more. He tends to let his hands get too far outside and that's something he'll get flagged for at the next level (think Taylor Lewan). On his pass pro, he needs to work on his kick, especially the first step. Maybe it's because the guys he's blocking aren't fast enough to test his edge and he doesn't want to outstep and open an inside lane, but his first step is too short and too slow. More likely, he has never really been tested much on his edge so he hasn't had to work on that much.
That assessment may sound a little harsh and nitpicky about a 17 year old that hasn't even started his senior year in high school, but I am naturally more critical of guys ranked so highly. That and there really isn't that much to pick at honestly. The limited film I've seen is just him destroying guys and taking them 25+ yards downfield or planting them on their backs or both. This kid is good. Very good. He is going to be a fixture on the OL for several years and will come in close to being ready to contribute. He's good enough to maybe even bypass the almost automatic redshirt just about every freshman OL receives. We'll see. I do not, however, see him ultimately ending up at OT. I think he will be a Guard in the mold of a Steve Hutchinson. He looks the part of a Guard more than a Tackle to me and he has the footwork and pulling ability Coach Hoke wants from his Guards to run his beloved power play. I think with Stacey, Magnuson, and Bars already in the fold at OT and the last (possibly?) OL spot likely to another Tackle, Kalis as a Guard makes since there too. Obviously, we have a long time until we find out for sure, that's just my projection.
Looking Forward
At 19 commits now, the class is getting close to full. I am still taking Coach Hoke's word on this class being at 26, so we're looking at 7 more spots available. As I mentioned above, if another OL was to choose Michigan it would most likely be an OT. The most likely from that group would probably be Jordan Diamond, but he said once again today that he will take all five of his official visits and won't make a decision until after his season ($). Other possibilities for that spot include Adam Bisnowaty, Josh Garnett, Zach Banner, and Andrus Peat. I think anyone but Bisnowaty from that list may be a pipe dream, but all five of these guys are showing at least some genuine interest. After that, we're looking at probably two WR, two DT, a RB/FB, and a wild card. I'm still hearing a lot that Michigan will only take one interior defensive lineman (DT). Even if they have already decided that they are going to move Godin inside to DT, I still think they have to take two more DT in this class. It is just too thin at that position.
In my dreams the last seven spots would consist of Banner or Peat (take your pick), Ondre Pipkins, Danny O'Brien, Aaron Burbridge, Dwayne Stanford, E.J. Fatu (MUST have a FB, RB is a luxury...okay, maybe Dunn here), and Adolphus Washington. Yes another DE. He's too good to pass on and although package deals rarely work out, I think this one happens. You may be surprised to see Diamond is not on my list. I have cooled on him a little myself, but ultimately I think he ends up waiting too long and someone else will take his spot. Honestly, I'd be happy with any of those five OT I listed though.
It should be exciting to see how this class finishes off. Oh and I almost forgot, no I'm not worried about RJS and TRich taking official visits to other schools ($). Yes it makes me nervous anytime you have recruits on another school's campus, but it's kinda like when your girlfriend goes out with her friends and there's a bunch of guys there. You don't like it, but you're not going to throw a hissy fit about it and tell her she can't go. Or if you do, she won't be your girlfriend much longer anyway. As always, stay tuned and Go Blue.
