Thursday, March 15, 2012

Quick NCAA Tournament Picks

Well, I've kinda run out of time on this, so this will be short. 

South Regional - Kentucky over Duke
West Regional - Mizzou over New Mexico
East Regional - Ohio State over Syracuse
Midwest Regional - North Carolina over Kansas

Final Four - Kentucky over Mizzou and North Carolina over OSU.

Champs - Kentucky

I will say that I originally had Syracuse winning it all over Kentucky, but the loss of Fab Melo is going to be too much for them to overcome.

Of Michigan note, I have the Wolverines in the Sweet 16 with wins over Ohio and Temple, before bowing out to Carolina.

Yes, I know.  A lot of chalk at the end.  We'll see.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Commit #15 and a Four Seed

Over the weekend, Coach Hoke secured number 15 for the class of 2013 in the form of Ohio CB Gareon Conley.  This was more or less broken by Conley himself on Friday when he tweeted that he would be committing the next day, although it was expected to happen even before that.  Conley is unranked by Rivals, four stars and the #20 CB to Scout, and three stars with an 88 rating from 24/7.  He fits the mold of the taller CB type that Hoke and Mattison have been looking for as he is 6'2", but he will need to add some weight as he is listed as 165-170 pounds right now.


The reel above shows very good speed and excellent length.  I had heard the comparison to Steve Breaston in his stride and it is dead on.  He probably isn't as fast as Stevie was/is, but the running style is very reminiscent.  Shows good leaping ability and timing, as well as the body control to adjust to the ball in the air.  Definitely thin as a rail and will need another 15-20 pounds at least to not get manhandled at the next level by bigger, stronger receivers.  Good use of length and speed to be an effective kick blocker off the edge.


Conley makes two CBs in this class and likely closes the position for this year outside of a super like a Fuller, Hargreaves, or Willis.  The coaches wanted a taller kid for the other CB spot and looks like they got what they wanted once again.  Conley may be an under the radar type of kid that gets a bit more attention in his senior season than he's gotten thus far.  I've read some very promising things from the guys that know Ohio football and they seem to like him a lot more than his current rating may suggest.  Other offers at the time of his commitment were from Northwestern, Toledo, and West Virginia.  Hopefully a diamond in the rough.

Going Forward
Rumors abound about the RB position with Ty Isaac in Ann Arbor all last weekend and Deveon Smith scheduled to come in this weekend.  I'm hearing VA RB Derrick Green may also be in town this weekend for an unofficial of his own.  I truly have no idea what is going to happen there, but if I got to choose it would be Isaac, Green, Smith in that order.  All of them are very good RBs though and I would/will be thrilled with any of them.  Things seem like they will be winding up on the RB front in the next week or two but anything could happen including a much more extended timeline.  It just seems headed for a conclusion sooner than later.  I will get up an expected visitor list in the next day or so.

Tourney Time
To basketball now, as the weekend also held some events of importance on the hardwood.  First, on Saturday the basketball team played Ohio State in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament.  No word on the outcome there, so we'll just assume things went swimmingly.  Seriously though, that was awful and hard to watch (truth be told I shut it off with about eight minutes left) and let's never speak of it again.  Sunday was a new day, however, and the day the Wolverines found out their NCAA Tourney road. 

A four seed in the Midwest Regional originally angered me a bit, mostly because I was expecting a three, but it turns out may be more beneficial than the three in the same bracket.  Georgetown got said three seed and will play 14 seed Belmont.  Those that know more about this than I say that Belmont has a very good chance to win that game and is a very tough draw at the 14 spot.  Michigan, on the other hand, will play 13 seed Ohio.  It seems the tournament committee has a sense of humor in setting up this match-up.  While this match-up is apparently a better one than facing Belmont, don't expect the Buckeyes Bobcats to be a pushover either.  Brian did a Q and A with someone who knows the Bobcats better than any of the rest of us yesterday.  A good read.  The game will be Friday evening on TNT.  Most recent line I've seen is Michigan minus 6.  Thanks for reading and Go Blue.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Beat Ohio

Again.

Update:
The last time Michigan played OSU in basketball was a few weekends ago. Over that weekend, the Maize and Blue picked up eight football verbals and beat the Buckeyes in a thriller. This afternoon, a berth in the Big Ten Tournament Finals is at stake when the two teams play again. There also appears to be one or more commitments for the football team ready to drop as well.

Ohio CB Gareon Conley tweeted yesterday that he would make his commitment today. Since he is on campus, it'd be pretty shocking if that choice was anyone other than Michigan. Some outlets have already reported that the commitment has happened, but I have not heard anything I would deem official.

Of course, the big fish on campus is IL RB Ty Isaac. If Shane Morris is able to work his considerable recruiting magic on Isaac, this could turn into another blockbuster weekend in a hurry. I don't know how likely that may be, but Shane has really been on the money with his recruiting pitch to uncommitted guys. We'll see what happens.

This is the basketball team's day though. After they clawed back from what I thought was elimination last night, they will have to turn it up considerably to repeat their feat against Sullinger and company. It would make a nice birthday present to me though! Once again, Beat Ohio and as always, Go Blue!

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Big Ten Tournament


Click here for full size.

The Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament gets underway tomorrow morning with the 8/9 game between Iowa and Illinois.  That's the first of four games tomorrow that make up the first round.  Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin have byes.

I was going to preview these first round match-ups, but the guys over at Maize 'n' Brew have already done so in a much better fashion than I could have so go over there for your previews.

Michigan will play the winner of the NW-Minnesota game on Friday evening at 6:30 ET on BTN.  I will try to have a preview for that game.

Commit #14

Trotwood-Madison (OH) LB Mike McCray made it public yesterday that he had chosen Michigan to play his college ball.  McCray is a 6'4" 230 pounder that Rivals has tabbed as the 44th best player in the country.  He is the first LB to commit in this class and continues the hot streak the Wolverines have been on overall, but especially with LBs over the last two classes.  If memory serves, McCray is the first player from Trotwood-Madison to come to Ann Arbor since the trio of Roy Roundtree (Happy Bday to him today btw), Mike Shaw, and Brandon Moore in 2008.  I have heard some rumblings about his potential, at his size, to grow into a DE but I think he is going to fit nicely into the SAM LB spot and be the heir to Jake Ryan.  McCray committed over offers from Arizona, BC, Illinois, Ole Miss, Nebraska, NC State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia and a handful of others.


The writing was pretty much on the wall for this commitment over the last couple of weeks.  McCray announced he would be visiting U-M on March 6th and then announcing his decision on the 8th.  Guys don't generally visit someplace and then turn around and commit somewhere else two days later, so this was generally expected to be a Michigan decision.  Having said all that, this is still a very exciting commitment for several reasons.  First off, this kid can flat out play.  What I see on the film I've looked at (including the above reel) is a kid that has a great feel for the game and instinctively knows where to be on the field to make plays.  He shows pretty good speed for a kid his size and he can bring the lumber when he gets to the football.

Secondly, I love the position Michigan is in for very high caliber LBs in this class.  Some of my more specific thoughts can be found here.  With two more spots and at least the trio of Gedeon, O'Daniel, and Levenberry listing M as their leader, things get interesting.  I read somewhere (I can't find it now, sorry) that Gedeon recently said he may have to alter his decision timeline to make sure he has a spot if he decides he wants to be a Wolverine.  All of these guys (and the handful of other LBs that are also high on U-M) know that there won't be room for everyone.  Things may start to heat up soon and the possibilities are exciting.  Levenberry has maintained that he will not decide until the All American games, but he is the one I would expect the coaches to hold a spot for.  What that tells me is that the next LB that wants to commit will get the only other spot that's not reserved.  Who will it be?  My guess is Gedeon.

And the thing about this commit that I just love to death, is that OSU will not get this kid.  They didn't even offer.  This article in the Dayton Daily News (HT to mgoblog) has some great quotes from McCray's head coach in which he all but says that the Buckeyes screwed this one up and he doesn't sound real happy about it.  My favorite is when he said:
They sent him a letter last Thursday telling him to hold on, that they were still evaluating linebackers.
Well, take your time Urban.  No rush.  Coach Hoke and Coach Mattison and the rest of the boys from 'That School Up North' don't mind you taking as long as you want in your evaluations.  They'll just keep bringing in big time recruits while you finish up.  Oh, and thanks.  Did I mention that McCray's dad (who is also the LB coach at Trotwood) played at OSU when Meyer was there as an assistant in the late 80's and was even a team captain in 1988?  Ha, I just love it too much!

Going Forward

I don't really have much to add here since the piece I did a couple days ago.  As I said above, I think Gedeon takes the next LB spot and the last one will be reserved for Levenberry if he wants it.  Where does that leave O'Daniel who is supposed to visit for the Spring Game with his five star teammate CB Kendall Fuller?  I don't have an answer for that.  It's possible they could take him as a SS if they want him bad enough and don't have room for him at LB.  That's probably a stretch though.

Weekend Visitors

This weekend is shaping up to be a big one with the talent expected to be in town.  Don't expect an eight commit blowout like we saw a few weeks ago, but there could be a couple more names on the commit list sooner than later.  Shane Morris and David Dawson are the only two commits that will be in town.  Morris has already been talking a lot to Ty Isaac about hanging out with him this weekend and you can bet he will be in his ear about coming on board.

Here is the list of uncommitted kids I have heard will be on campus this weekend:

Illinois RB Ty Isaac
Illinois OT Colin McGovern
Ohio LB Shane Jones
Ohio CB Gareon Conley
Ohio CB Jaleel Hytchye - I don't know a thing about this kid other than what you see on his profile
Maryland WR Zach Bradshaw

All of these kids except Hytchye have offers.  Isaac is the big fish.  There are also a number of commits and prospects that have said they might come, as well as some 2014 kids too.  I'll update as these things get more concrete.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Updated Class of 2013 Outlook - March 5th

So here we are just over a month after Signing Day for the class of 2012 and the class of 2013 is already more than half done.  The Wolverines sit at 13 commitments in what has already become a monster class.  Patrick Kugler was the most recent to join and there are several recruits visiting soon, just visited, or about to make their decisions known so let's have a look at where things stand.

Original projection here.

OFFENSE

Quarterback
Commits - 1
Still to Come - 0

Outlook:  Shane Morris is on track to be a five star before all is said and done and is proving himself to be a five star recruiter as well.  He is in the ear of tons of top kids and he is talking up Michigan every chance he gets.  I do not see another QB taken in this class, but it is possible that another ends up here to provide depth after not taking one last class.

Running Back
Commits - 1
Still to Come - 1

Outlook:   Big back Wyatt Shallman remains the only commit here.  There have been some grumblings that the coaches would take two more true Tailbacks, but I still believe they want one super recruit to close this out.  Every indication is that Ty Isaac remains the number one choice for that spot.  Tremendous spoke with Ty today and tweeted this earlier:  "...I talked to Ty Isaac who said he's not committing anywhere anytime soon."  The question becomes, do you wait on this kid if another highly rated kid wants in before he's ready to decide?  Tough to say.  I really like Isaac and want him in this class badly, but you run the risk of getting nothing if you wait.  I still think he comes to A2 in the end.

On the Radar:  Ty Issac, Deveon Smith, Derrick Green (probably OSU bound)

Wide Receiver
Commits - 1
Still to Come - 2

Outlook:  Jaron Dukes pulled the trigger early, as expected.  So now what?  Well, I think there will be two more.  At least one outside game breaker and maybe two.  The other could be a slot type but ultimately the coaches want an upgrade in size and athleticism at the receiver position as a whole.  Laquon Treadwell remains the top prospect on the board here.  Do want.  There are a ton of other guys I would love to add as well.  Originally I had Treadwell and Kevin Gladney with Dukes as the three guys here.  I don't have any info to make me change my mind on either, but Gladney was always a shot in the dark more or less.

On the Radar:  Treadwell, Gladney, James Onwualu, James Quick, Devon Allen (prob stay out west), Robert Foster (probably a long shot)

Tight End
Commits - 2
Still to Come - probably 1 more

Outlook:  It appears that the staff will take a third TE in this class.  Unless I am underestimating the numbers here (quite possible) I think there are greater needs elsewhere, but it appears to be happening.  Khalid Hill and Jake Butt make a nice pair of TEs so far with each filling a role.  Adam Breneman is announcing soon and Michigan did not make his final cut.  I will be shocked if he doesn't pick PSU.  A couple of other guys are very much still in play though.  Jacob Matuska visited two weekends ago (if memory serves) and Tremendous caught up with him afterwards.  FWIW, he also has high interest in ND and it wouldn't surprise me to see him end up there either.  The other main candidate appears to be recent Wisconsin decommit Scott Orndoff, who will visit on March 17th.  I suspect commit number three comes from one of these two guys. 

On the Radar:  Those two are the only two I'm hearing much about.  You can forget about Durham Smythe, he's not leaving Texas.

Offensive Line
Commits - 5
Still to Come - probably 0

Outlook:  The strength of the class thus far, the OL appears to be done outside of a couple of supers that won't be turned away.  If Ethan Pocic or Laremy Tunsil want to join the class, I think you have to take them, but I don't think there's anyone else the staff is still looking at.  There was some talk of the coaches trying to flip Steven Elmer from ND in the last couple weeks.  I don't know if that's true or not, but it ain't happening either way. 

On the Radar:  Just Pocic (I think he's going to ND still) and Tunsil (probably staying in the SE).

DEFENSE

Defensive End
Commits - 1
Still to Come - 1

Outlook:   Taco Charlton is a great get for this class and I think he is going to make a big jump up the rankings in his senior season.  The other DE spot is a bit of a mystery.  There are several big names in the mix, but I don't a have a great feel for any of them, at least not yet.  For now, I am going to say that DE commit number two is someone not on the radar yet.  The guys below are all studs and I would be ecstatic if any of them chose to join Taco.

On the Radar:  Christian Lacouture (recent decommit from A&M), Joey Bosa, Jonathan Allen, Jason Hatcher, Alquadin Muhammad, Elijah Daniel, Tashawn Bower.

Defensive Tackle
Commits - 0
Still to Come - 2

Outlook:  Once again, the DT position is making me nervous.  The depth and talent level at that spot scare me to death.  Depth more than anything.  I don't know if the fact that there are three DL coaches on this staff makes them extra picky with this spot or what the situation is, but I really would sleep much better at night if a couple of big time recruits would snatch up these two spots.  Okay, I'm being very greedy considering the state of the class so far, it's just this spot needs it more than any other on the team.  The fact that this is not a great year for DTs doesn't help the matter.  Henry Poggi is number one on the board and M is in good shape with him.  Poet Thomas is a bit of a head scratcher.   He's 6'6" 295 pounds and right in M's back yard.  His offer list is Toledo and....Florida?  Yeah, weird.  I still think he ends up in this class, but there may be something about him I'm not aware of.

On the Radar:  Poggi, Thomas, Rod Crayton (has visited), Eddie Vanderdoes, Darius Latham (was reported to be on campus yesterday; Sam Webb says he wasn't), Michael Hill (long shot).

Linebacker
Commits - 0
Still to Come - 2 or 3

I originally pegged this position to only take two, but it seems as though there may be too many major LBs that want to come to Michigan to take only two.   Ben Gedeon was on campus this past weekend and did not commit, but I think that will happen before too long.  Mike McCray is scheduled to be on campus tomorrow and announce his decision on Thursday.  Well that was the original plan.  As tweeted by everyone this afternoon, that decision will no longer come Thursday but could come at any time now.  Tremendous spoke with him today too (that dude talks to everyone!) and he has apparently already made his decision, but did not leak who it is.  All signs point to Blue here.  For reference McCray is the #44 ranked player in the country and is from Trotwood-Madison in Ohio.  Also listing Michigan as their leader are fellow super recruits E.J. Levenberry and Dorian O'Daniel.  As MGoBrian put it earlier this afternoon, LB is the new OL.  Close your eyes and pick any three of those four and I couldn't be happier.

On the Radar:  Gedeon, McCray, Levenberry, O'Daniel, Alex Anzalone, Matt Rolin.

Cornerback
Commits - 1
Still to Come - 1 or 2

Outlook:  Jourdan Lewis is in the fold.  Who will come join him?  There are some interesting story lines being played out here.  There's five star Kendall Fuller - a kid from Good Counsel that stays in touch with Blake Countess and is teammates with Dorian O'Daniel.  Will those relationships lead him to go Blue?  Will he and O'Daniel package together?  Historically, I've found the answer to both of those questions to be 'no'.  Just thinking about it does make me drool just a bit though.  Ryan White has already pledged to Louisville, but what if both his teammates (Jason Hatcher and James Quick) decide to go to Michigan?  Does he want to tag along all the sudden?  Honestly, I don't think any of the three will end up Blue, but it is an interesting story to keep an eye on.  I don't have a great feeling here either, but it does seem that the coaches want a taller CB with this other spot.  There is also a possibility they take two more here.

On the Radar:  Fuller, White (not really), Priest Willis, Tre Bell, Cole Luke, Vernon Hargreaves III (long shot).

Safety
Commits - 1
Still to Come - probably 0

Outlook:  Dymonte Thomas has been in this class for a long time now and is one of the reasons why it has taken off so much recently.  I had originally thought the coaches would take another Safety to pair with him, but I no longer think that is probable.  The only exception would be for Su'a Cravens.  I am not going to gush over this kid again like I did last time, all I'll say is that this kid is going to be a superstar somewhere and it would be nice if somewhere was at Stadium and Main.

On the Radar:  Cravens or nothin'.

SUMMARY

Based on the numbers above, on the high end we are now looking at 25 for this class.  I still don't think this class will get that big, so some concessions will have to be made.  Where will those concessions come from?  Most probable I think are DE, LB, and CB.  If the coaches don't take another DE, only take two LBs, and add only one more CB, then we are back at the number 22.  I think that's still probably a better estimate to the size of this class.  Then again, what do I know? 

The make up of this class is already outstanding.  Even more exciting, is that there are so many big time kids that are still naming Michigan as their leader or among them.  This class is going to get better than it already is and I can't wait to see how high the ceiling is!  I'll be right there watching with all of you.  Thanks for visiting and Go Blue.

A Commit, a Loss, Two Wins, and a Championship

What a last week we have seen surrounding Michigan Athletics!  We have a lot to cover, so let's get right to it.

Commit #13

In a strange turn of events, Coach Hoke took another commitment for his class of 2013 without a second to go with him.  In this case, just the one will do nicely.  On Saturday (2/25), Patrick Kugler became lucky number 13 to join the class of '13 somewhat out of the blue.  Kugler is a 6'5" 280 pound OL from Wexler, PA (North Allegheny) and is currently rated four stars and the number 54 overall recruit in the nation by Rivals.  He is the fifth OL to join this class.

I really shouldn't be surprised by anyone committing to the Wolverines the way Coach Hoke and the rest of the staff are recruiting these days, but I will admit that Kugler was really not on my radar.  I didn't even know he was visiting until the day before and knew that it was expected to be a split trip with Saturday being spent in A2 and Sunday scheduled to be a day in East Lansing.  In fact, the scuttlebutt I was hearing had Kugler leaning towards Sparty with a possible commitment to the Green and White coming on Sunday.  Things have a funny way of changing when a recruit gets to campus in Ann Arbor though, and Patrick pulled the trigger for the Maize and Blue instead and cancelled the rest of his weekend trip, never even making it to EL.

On to the kid himself.  Word is that Coach Funk has told Kugler all along that he was recruiting him to play Center.  This is very good news as that really gives this class a full OL across the board.  With Kugler at Center, Bosch and Dawson at Guards, and Fox and LTT at Tackles, the line is set.  More importantly, we can rest a little easier knowing the heir to the all important Center position has been identified and secured.  I like this choice for Center because this kid is technically sound and smart, which shouldn't be much of a surprise considering his dad is the OL coach for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  I love coach's kids, especially on the OL.  He is a little taller than your average Center prospect and he will have to learn the position as he is the LT on his HS team, but I expect he will be able to handle the transition.

Let's have a look at some film.  This isn't going to be a great indicator of his future as playing Tackle and Center are very different, but this will give you an idea of his general ability.



The first couple of minutes on this reel are him playing DT, which isn't going to help much with his evaluation other than to show that he is a strong kid that can just throw ball carriers to the ground when he gets his hands on them.  Shows some good penetration and a good nose for the ball, but just looks uncomfortable on defense.  Anyway, to the offense.  Powerful kid with solid technique and a nasty streak.  Knows his assignment and takes care of it.  Would like to see a little more foot speed when he pulls or gets out in front of a screen.  Standard 'needs to add weight and get stronger' comment, but does show an ample frame for about 20 more pounds.  Hopefully he can add that weight/strength and get a little quicker at the same time (or at least not lose any quicks he has now).

Kugler had a significant offer list, as you might expect from such a highly ranked prospect, which included the likes of Arizona, Boise State, Cal, Cincinnati, Florida, FSU, Iowa, Maryland, Miami, MSU, UNC, ND, PSU, Pitt, South Carolina, Stanford, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia among others.  Welcome to the class Patrick.

Going Forward

So does that close the door on OL recruiting for 2013?  Probably.  If Ethan Pocic or Laremy Tunsil want to join the fun, I would suspect they will be welcomed, but they may be the only ones.  M has 5 very good players and fills out an entire line group with who they have.  If you are not a super talent, you are probably out of luck if you want to go to U-M.  I will have a recruiting breakdown a little later tonight or tomorrow that will address the rest of the class in a bit more depth.

Senior Night Stumble

Also on that Saturday, the men's hoops team hosted Purdue on Senior Night attempting to close out an undefeated home slate for the season.  This was supposed to be a night to celebrate the careers of Stu Douglass and Zack Novak as well as a perfect home record.  Instead, what we all witnessed was what can happen on any given night.  Okay, that's a little thick with the cliche, but it's the truth.  The Wolverines sleepwalked through an embarrassing 75-61 home loss to a mediocre Purdue team and reminded us that things can go sour quickly in the game of basketball.

I'm not going to dwell long on this game, partly because it's a little depressing to do so (not to mention fruitless), but also because this was over a week ago and bigger and better things have happened since.  In a nutshell, Michigan was outshot 50% - 42%, shot under 30% on 32 three pointers, and went to the free throw line four times to Purdue's 16.  It was a strange game to watch.  I really don't have much else to say about this game.  Novak, Burke, and Hardaway were the only players in double figures and were also the only players with double digit attempts.  Blah.

Hardaway Returns

I have been pretty down on Tim Hardaway, Jr lately.  I was pretty critical of his performance against NW in this space recently.  He shut me up last Thursday night in Champaign.  Hardaway had 25 on 6-7 shooting (including 4-4 from beyond the arc plus 9-10 from the line) and Trey Burke added 21 in a 72-61 road win against Illinois.  Hardaway was all over the floor.  He was athletic and aggressive and did what he wanted to do while staying in rhythm and playing within the team.  And it was everything I thought it could be.

This kid can play.  He has the talent and the skills.  Last Thursday proved it.  If he can replicate that performance, Michigan becomes an extremely dangerous basketball team.  Good thing the calendar reads March.

Burke is going to be a steady force for this team.  He will make some Freshman mistakes, but not too many, and he will score and run the offense.  When you add Hardaway to that - doing what he's capable of doing - then everyone else on the floor becomes that much better and a little more open.  Here's hoping that he can maintain what he has found again.

Finale

The regular season finale at Penn State was yesterday afternoon and there was a lot on the line.  A win and and a Spartan loss meant a share of the first Big Ten regular season Championship since 1986.  Yes folks, this program had won a National Championship more recently than a Big Ten title.  While most of us had our thoughts on the OSU-MSU showdown later that afternoon, Michigan still had a road game to win or that later clash didn't matter.

Penn State has been in a battle with Nebraska all year for the cellar spot in the Big Ten, but we all know anything can happen when you're on the road in a conference game.  While M sorta cruised out to a big lead, I think we all knew that the Lions would make a run and make us all sweat a little.  And they did.  They chipped and chipped and chipped and next thing you know it's a five point game late in the second half.  Burke hits a huge four point play to push it to a 10 point lead, but PSU hits a four point play of their own on the very next possession.

This was way more tense than it needed to be, but the good guys prevail 71-65 and set the stage for the unthinkable.  We all had to root for Ohio State to win.  I preferred to think of it as rooting for Michigan State to lose, but that's just semantics.  Mgoblue.com had a great piece on the team watching the end of that game back in Ann Arbor after their flight home.


Congratulation guys.  You earned it.

mgoblue.com