Monday, September 26, 2011

Game Recap: San Diego State

I will happily admit that I was wrong about this game.  I really thought that SDSU was going to come in and use their running game to set up the pass, control the game and the clock, confuse the heck out of Denard and the OL with their pressure, and fly back to California with a win.  None of those things happened and I couldn't be happier to be wrong.  Even the weather made a liar out of me.  All is not sunshine and lollipops, but a win is a win and there were plenty of good things that came out of Saturday to be pleased about.

This equals 7.1 ypc as a team.  [Tony Ding, AP]

More of this please...

Scoring on the opening drive.  And twice in the first quarter.  Both touchdowns.  Yes, please.

Craig Roh.  Go ahead and watch this starting at the 0:10 mark (well watch the whole thing actually).  Yeah watch it a few times.  This is what Brady Hoke means by "feeling" Craig Roh and the other D-linemen.  Ronnie Hillman feels him. (via parkinggod)



Speed Option.  I have been waiting for the Speed Option since Rich Rodriguez became the head coach.  I drooled at the thought when I first saw Denard run with the ball.  I finally got to see it Saturday.  Speed Option is a great play regardless of how fast or nimble your QB is.  When your QB is Denard Robinson, it becomes freaking awesome.  If you don't know what I'm talking about, Denard's long TD run came on the Speed Option.  This will also be the subject of an upcoming in-depth post.

OL.  They are starting to get it.  The holes are getting bigger and better defined.  Timing is way better.  They are more confident in what they are doing and it absolutely showed on the field on Saturday.  Even with Denard, averaging 7.1 ypc as a team is impressive.  The fact that they ran the ball 45 times makes it even more impressive.  The fact that M couldn't throw the ball to save their lives, even more so.  If you look at the QB Power that scored the first TD of the game, you will see Huyge absolutely drive his man and Barnum pull and lead with authority.  Barnum's pull was timed properly and that has been an issue in the first three weeks (not just with him).  Result:  fairly easy TD.  Again, on the long Speed Option run, Huyge and Koger make that play happen with perfect blocks and Denard is never touched.  This is encouraging.

Michigan Defense is 11 helmets to the football.  [John T. Greilick, Detroit News]

11 helmets to the ball.  This is something that hasn't been seen around AA in a few years.  This defense is full of guys that want to attack whoever has the football.  All of them.  How do you make an enormous improvement on team defense?  Get everyone flying to the football with bad intentions and teach them how to get there properly.  This is happening and the results are starting to be seen.


...but I could do without this, at least until it's fixed.

Throwing the football.  This is abysmal.  Denard has regressed in his passing, but this is not all his fault.  There is almost never anyone open for him for some reason and his receivers aren't catching everything they can either.  I haven't studied the routes yet and unfortunately this is difficult to do without coach's film.  Hoke also said in his presser today that the receivers "blew two routes".  Much has been made by Hoke and Borges about Denard's footwork being the culprit behind his struggles, and this has a lot to do with it, but his throwing motion hasn't been good either.  The ball is sailing on him a ton and this is due to both his feet and his mechanics.  High throws are almost always due to two things:  not following through and poor arm angle/release point.  DR is having trouble with both, particularly the latter.  That being said, there are things I have seen that he is doing better than in the past.  The deep ball to Roundtree at the very beginning of the 4th quarter was one of the best deep balls I've seen him throw since he got to A2.  No it wasn't completed, but the ball wasn't underthrown and there wasn't too much air under it (sometimes the latter leads to the former).  The point is, it was a well thrown ball and that's a sign of improvement.  Denard will get better, but I hope it happens sooner than the progress thusfar has indicated it might.

Turnovers.  This is going to cost them dearly very soon.  Whether it's poor ball security or a poor decision by Denard throwing the ball, these things are fixable.  The interception on the deflection is a bad bounce and that is going to happen from time to time.  The preventable stuff has got to stop (obvious statement is obvious).

Field goal kicking.  Ugh.  I know he's not going to make every one, but if he made more than he missed I'd be a lot more forgiving of this.  I'm so tired of missed kicks.

Yeah, it happened again.  [Greilick]

Stephen Hopkins fumbling the ball.  Dude.  Seriously.  Stop.

Troy Woolfolk getting hurt.  Stop it with this too. 

Not converting on third down.  4-11 on third down is not the worst thing in the world, but it needs to be better.  The good news is, this has been better up to this game so I'm not too worried.  Completing some passes and getting solid gains on first down will fix this in a hurry.

Standouts

The Good - Offense:

The OL, for the most part.
Running Denard.  Again.
Fitz and Smith - I think both ran well.
Dileo - Those quick hit seam routes he gets are not easy to catch.
SpeedOptionSpeedOptionSpeedOptionSpeedOptionSpeedOptionSpeedOptionSpeedOptionSpeedOption

The Not So Good - Offense:

Passing Denard.  Again.
Wide Receivers - These guys are non-existent and have been outside of the ND game.
McColgan - He flat out missed a couple of blocks and was ineffective on the Iso.  He's a big part of what Borges wants to do and needs to step it up.


That's more like it.  [Greilick]


Welcome, young man.  [Greilick]


The Good - Defense:

Blake Countess - He gave up a few completions, but he made a play on a couple of balls as well.  Solid debut and a precursor to great things to come.
The DL - Whether it be putting pressure on Lindley and generally making him feel uncomfortable or swallowing up the run or drawing holding calls, this unit played their best game so far.
Hustle - This is best defined on the forced fumble where RVB ran the play down from his DT spot 25 yards downfield and stripped the ball and Ryan was right on his heels to recover the ball 10 yards further downfield.  That is effort being rewarded right there.
JT Floyd - I haven't seen a CB in a winged helmet break on a short pass like that in I don't know how long.  So very good to see.

The Not So Good - Defense:

I don't really have a lot here.  Hawthorne was slow to react and took a few bad angles a couple of times.  I'd like Demens to be more of factor.  Black was quiet.  So was Kovacs, although not having your safety making a ton of plays isn't a bad thing.  There was a lot of 'give' in the defense all day, but when it came time to make a stop they came through.  At the end of the day, it's about keeping the other team off the scoreboard and they did a good job of that.

Player of the Game

Denard.  Yeah he struggled throwing the ball again.  Yeah turned it over again.  The thing is, he makes plays other humans can't.  He scored three TDs in the first half.  He had 200 yards rushing on just 21 carries.  He's kinda good.  When he gets more comfortable and starts hitting some throws, it's gonna be scary.

Next Week

Big Ten play opens and it's time to defend the Jug.  MVictors should be your destination if you're looking for Jug lore.  This should be an easy tuneup to kick off the conference slate, but more importantly, I'd like to offer prayers and best wishes to Gopher Head Coach Jerry Kill who checked himself back into the hospital after reportedly suffering another bout of seizures yesterday.  Get well Coach.

Sunday, September 25, 2011

JASMFC Top 25 - Week 5

My initial rankings for the season.  Agree?  Disagree?  Leave me a comment.



AP and Coaches Polls

AP Top 25



 Coaches Poll Top 25

Friday, September 23, 2011

Game Time: San Diego State




When:  Saturday, September 24, 2011 - Noon ET

Where:  Ann Arbor, Michigan

Spread:  Michigan -10.5

TV:  BTN

You'll be Listening to:  Eric Collins, Chris Martin, and Dionne Miller

Weather:  Few Showers, High of 66.  60 and Rainy at kickoff.  Chance of rain = 30%

What to look for

Hand wringing and white knuckles.  We've all heard about how much this game means to the Aztecs and rightfully so.  They feel abandoned by their coach who left them because they weren't Michigan and informed them of this via text message (they were on Christmas vacation).  This is the game they've had circled on their calenders for the last nine and a half months.  So yeah, they're gonna come out firing.

The Aztecs are going to try and get their main weapon on offense, Ronnie Hillman, going early. Then they will look to capitalize via play action.  The defense will blitz on every snap and it will always be coming from a different place.  Chaos is what they are going for.  We will see what the 3-3-5 can be when it is taught and used properly.  This will cause problems.

What will happen

Hillman will look like a beast and do damage in chunks early.  The Atzecs will try to get him the ball through the air as well.  On the ground, expect a lot of counters and misdirection to try and get the 'backers flowing the wrong way so the OL can pin them where they want them.  Play action medium and deep balls will follow and the short passing game and screens will fill in the gaps.  Michigan will try to get Hillman off track early with some run blitzes and some DL slants with blitzers coming away from the slant.  If Kovacs has to get too involved in the run game, look out.  Michigan will do everything they can to win first down defensively to force SDSU into second and third and long.  That may seem like a stupid statement because when don't they want that, but I think that will be over-emphasized this week.

Offensively, Denard has got to get a few easy throws to start the game.  Borges knows it, and so do the Aztecs.  Look for them to play a little press coverage early to try and take away the short easy stuff so Denard can't get warmed up.  I expect the Willie 'backer or the Rover to be assigned to spy Denard on the Zone Read and completely ignore everyone else on the field.  If Michigan can get some damage done by giving the ZR, then they might be able to force a change on that.

Denard will throw the ball better this week and I hope he doesn't have to carry it nearly as much as last week.  I hope that, but I don't think it'll be the case.  SDSU will jump out to an early lead and will play solid field position from there.  Denard will be forced to carry the load to try and keep up.  The 3-3-5 will give him and the OL trouble all day, and expect to see a couple of turnover come from the pressure.  Can you tell this game makes me nervous?

Completely baseless prediction

I think I proved last week why I call this completely baseless.  My predictions last week were as awful as possible (okay a few of them were right).  This may be the toughest game all season to predict, but here goes:
  • Hillman goes for over 150 and a pair of TDs
  • The WRs finally come to life
  • Too vague on that last one?  Fine, both Roundtree and Hemmingway go for 60+ and a TD.
  • Michigan misses a pair of FGs, SDSU does not
  • San Diego State 27, Michigan 21

NFL Picks Week 3

Last Week and Year to Date

9-7 ATS last week.  19-13 on the season.

Let's Get On With It


Sunday
Denver +6.5 @ Tennessee
Detroit -3.5 @ Minnesota
Houston +4.5 @ New Orleans
Jacksonville +3.5 @ Carolina
Miami +2.5 @ Cleveland
New England -9.5 @ Buffalo
NY Giants pk @ Philadelphia
San Francisco +2.5 @ Cincinnati
Arizona -3.5 @ Seattle
Atlanta +1.5 @ Tampa Bay
Baltimore -3.5 @ St. Louis
Green Bay -3.5 @ Chicago
Kansas City +14.5 @ San Diego
NY Jets -3.5 @ Oakland
Pittsburgh -10.5 @ Indianapolis

Monday
Washington pk @ Dallas

College Football, Week 4

Note:  All spreads used here are composites and are for entertainment use only.  Do not use my picks for gambling purposes.  This is just for fun!

Last Week in Review

Last week was a little brutal.  Of the picks highlighted here, I was 5-5.  Thought I had the Pitt-Iowa game nailed but the Panthers managed to blow it in impressive fashion and I am flabbergasted that Alabama didn't blow the doors off UNT by way more.  Oh well, that's why you should never listen to me.

Must See


These are the marquee games of the weekend or games that are going to be really good (not always the same thing).  There are some very solid games this week, but it's a little light on the "must see".


Florida State at Clemson.  FSU is coming off a tough loss at home and has to open their conference slate on the road against a team that just came off a huge home win over Auburn last week.  These are teams that seem to be headed in opposite directions, but hold on.  The 'Noles played well last week against perhaps the best team in the country and there is something to be said for Clemson having a bit of a hangover.  Still, I think E.J. Manuel and company are a year away from being able to win this game under these circumstances.  Give me the Tigers and I'll give the two and a half.

Oklahoma State at Texas A&M.  This is the biggest game at Kyle Field that I can remember.  The Aggies handled a not-easy-to-beat SMU team already this year and looked good doing it.  Count me as one that thinks OSU is overrated.  I'll take the home team and lay the points.

Interesting


Arkansas at Alabama.  This could be a real good one.  The Hogs can light it up on the scoreboard and have a lot of speed on defense.  'Bama might be the best all around team in the country.  My TV is going to be busy for the late afternoon games this Saturday.  It's a shame they're all on at once.  I'm gonna go out on a limb a bit at take the points, but I think the Tide wins the game.

LSU at West Virginia.  The only reason I find this interesting is because I'm looking forward to how the folks in Morgantown are going to perform after an entire day of drinking moonshine and before a national TV audience.  LSU wins this easily.

USC at Arizona State.  Okay, there's a chance I'm only interested in this game because I think USC will lose and I like seeing USC lose.  In all seriousness, this will be an entertaining game for a late night start.  Give me the Sun Devils to bounce back at home.  (Is this three straight weeks I've highlighted ASU?  What the heck is wrong with me?)

If I Were a Gamblin' Man

A.K.A. I really like these lines:
  • This is a total cop-out but there aren't any other games I find attractive.  LSU is really the only line I like at all this week.  Lame.

As always, please feel free to leave me a comment and tell me all about my glorious brilliance or tell me why I'm a freakin' idiot.  Enjoy the games!