Back to Earth. After a great start to the 2011 season, the Wolverines find themselves crashing back to Earth from the clouds for the third straight year courtesy of the Spartans. Four in a row overall to the boys from down the road in East Lansing. I really hated typing that last sentence. I feel dirty.
So here we are. The last two years have started, and turned, just like this year has. Is this team going to go down the toilet like the last two years? Are we going to see another collapse through the meat of the Big Ten schedule? Probably not. I'd venture a guess that you have read the reasons that haven been proffered by so many that say "this team is different". To a certain degree, that's true. The emphasis on defense will keep this team in more games. Special Teams play is better than it's been in the past. The overall leadership is stronger. Is better coaching the reason why? That's a topic for another discussion, but I think that the biggest reason why this team will fare better than their predecessors is because the guys are a year older and they have a year more experience. There is only one true freshman that is getting a ton of PT and that's Countess. That is a big difference than the last couple of years. I'm not discounting the job that this coaching staff has done by any means. Michigan has an excellent coaching staff. They aren't miracle workers though, folks, and that was borne out on Saturday.
I really don't want to write the rest of this post, but on with the show.
Sickening [David Guralnick, Detroit News]
More of this please...
Points on the opening drive. This has been an encouraging trend. The scoring play was obviously improvisation by Denard, but that really is part of this offense. The Spartan defense didn't make it easy, but the Wolverines moved the ball 80 yards in 10 plays and used 6:10 off the clock. Those are all solid numbers. Eight yards per play is something you love, sustaining the drive for 10 plays is very good, and using nearly half of the first quarter before the opponent gets to touch the football is fantastic. Plays three and four are Vincent Smith runs of nine and 26 yards and at this point you have to be a little hopeful that the sledding isn't going to be all that tough. Only one third down (not converted) on the drive and the following play on 4th down was a fake FG. Ballsy on the road, I like it. Overall on the drive, Michigan would rush for 65 yards and pass for 10 (+five yards net in penalties).
Ummmmm.......only one turnover? I'm reaching for other good things here. Obviously turning the ball over is never a positive, but this is an improvement and there isn't much else for me to put here. I guess Hagerup did a good job of pinning MSU deep in their own territory with some solid directional punting. So, woohoo for that.
...but I could do without this, at least until it's fixed.
Ugly ass uniforms. I hate everything about what both teams were wearing. I'm not going to go off on another uniform rant because I've done this before. All I have to say is, please stop this crap. It sucks. All of it. It's ugly. It's tacky. It's gimmicky. It's a money grab. Period.
Ugly [Young]
Ugly [Dale G. Young, Detroit News]
2.3 YPC. If you would have told me that after the 65 yards Michigan gained on the ground on the opening drive they would only net 17 yards the rest of the game, I would have shut it off. Yes, both Denard and Devin took some big sacks. I don't care, that's part of the running game. That's pitiful. Give MSU credit, they played very good defense and they had a solid game plan. Still, awful. And I'm soooooo freaking tired of seemingly everyone blaming the backs for the problems in the run game! There's no elite running back on this team and the ground game is struggling because of it... SHUT UP. Seriously, shut your face. Is there a Hart or a Perry or a Wheatley on this team? No, obviously not. These guys aren't as good as any of those guys. But let's start pointing the finger at the real culprit(s) behind Michigan's inability to run the ball against a decent defense, the OL. This OL is not good people. Run blocking, pass blocking, you name it and they got whipped on Saturday. This isn't a one time occurrence either. There's a reason that Denard has happy feet in the pocket, it's because most of the time he's about to get killed by someone three times his size. There's a reason he doesn't step into his throws a lot of the time, it's because he doesn't have room to or because he's already on the move. There's a reason the backs can't run the ball, it's because there's nowhere for them to go. Even Molk had a bad day on Saturday. I cannot overstate how important the OL class that's coming in is to the future of this program.
The play of the front seven. That's right, now I'm gonna rip the other big guys and the 'backers. In for a penny, in for a pound.
Push. Penetration. LBs filling holes and making tackles. The Notre Dame front seven did an even better job but I couldn't find a very good clip that showed much of what they did defensively. These two games showed what I thought was the weak point of this MSU team, their OL. That was not the case against Michigan. Again, give credit where it's due. They played their best game of the year and deserve credit for it. This was just a huge disappointment to me. I was expecting Martin and the rest of the boys to do quite a bit of damage and to be disruptive all game long and it just didn't happen. The LBs, meanwhile, were silent. Absent might be a better word. The big backs of the Spartans ran through and dragged the Wolverine 'backers all day long.
3rd and forever. The Michigan offense was behind the sticks all game long. The 3-15 conversion rate is a direct result. You can't ask your offense to pick up 3rd and eight plus over and over again, especially in the windy conditions present on Saturday.
Playcalling. There's a few things I have issue with here. First of all, I don't have a huge issue with the actual plays that were being called by Borges (save for a couple big ones we'll get to in a minute) but more so the speed at which they were relayed to Denard/Devin. All game long, the offense struggled to get plays off and were down to the final second or two over and over and over. Much has been made about the MSU defenders jumping the snap (again, more to come on that), but for the most part, they didn't even have to be concerned with the snap count or what Molk was doing because they could simply see the play clock was expiring and it's time to go. Either the ball is snapped and you have a jump on it or it's a delay of game (which we saw more than once). Pretty easy. You are also putting Denard/Devin in a position where they can't check out of a play or even have time to get a pre-snap read of any kind because they simply don't have time. This is 100% on the coaches. When the offense is struggling, the last thing you want to do is create more pressure on them by forcing them to hurry up to get the play off and not allowing any time to get a defensive read. This was infuriating to me all day long. This is setting your players up to fail and it's very poor game management. As far as the specific plays that I take issue with, obviously we have to talk about the 4th and one call. First of all, let me say this: I don't hate the call, but I have a couple of issues. The call needs to be issued with the instruction that if the sneak is available and you know you can get the first down, take it. The other issue is that I love this call, if you have the lead. State was up seven at the time, Michigan is on the Spartan nine yard line and there are six and half minutes left in the game. Not the right scenario for this call IMO. The last thing I don't like about this play is that Denard has his back to the LOS. He can just as easily carry out this fake with ball behind his back facing the LOS. If this is the case, then he at least has a chance to see the blitzing Corner and can try and use his legs to save the play. Not to mention that if it had been a handoff, he would be looking to see if the back had gotten the first down or not. He wouldn't have his back to everyone hoping for the best. Having him turned around doesn't even sell the fake better. This is a painful video to watch, but the first thing I thought of when I saw the play on Saturday was the play at the 0:50 mark of this video. This is not the best view of it, but this is the way that play should have been executed:
Dagger. Instead, we got this:
He never had a chance [Young]
The other main issue with the playcalling in general I had was where in the world was the Bubble? It was wide open all day long and Michigan called it zero times. I don't get it. Oh, and I almost forgot, the snap counts. How many years in a row are we going to hear the Michigan State defenders talk about them knowing the snap count? How long does it take to see that it needs to be altered? I understand that it's loud and you're on the road. I don't care. Again, this is 100% on the coaches. This is not a difficult adjustment and must be made early. This is not a new development in this game either. There should have been multiple snap counts and there should have been varying counts practiced all week in preparation of this. Again, I'm baffled.
Sparty being Sparty. I'm not going to go into all the personal fouls or my feelings about William Gholston. It's been done. You can probably guess my feelings about it. It shouldn't be surprising. This is the way Dantonio runs his program. I'm not saying he coaches them to be dirty, but he doesn't do much to dissuade them from generally being assholes whether it's on the field or off. Get in a bar fight and get arrested? No problem, those two guys are starters. Steal $160,000 worth of laptops and get your Pops in on the business too? All good, you're reinstated. Show up at a hockey party univited and then start kicking the crap out of people and sending them to the hospital? You can get back on the team too, when they let you out of jail. I am not trying to say that Michigan hasn't had trouble with some of their athletes before, but this is a little more than trouble. This is the Sparty way.
This wasn't called a personal foul, until he threw Denard down afterwards [Guralnick]
I'm sure there's more, but I'm tired of being pissed about this game so we're done with this section.
Also, I'm aware that this has been particularly critical this week. I think it's warranted. It's not my goal to trash the team or any individuals in this space, nor will it ever be. The team played poorly in this game, individuals had bad games, and the coaches did a poor job too. It happens. It's frustrating as hell, but it happens. The real trick is to not lose this game twice. With a bye coming up, there's going to be a lot of time before the next opponent to dwell on this game. It's over with, now can they put it behind them and get things back on track?
Standouts
The Good - Offense:
Roundtree....I guess - forgot about his huge drop on 3rd down :(
The Not So Good - Offense:
Well...everyone?
Huyge - exposed and abused by Spartan pass rushers
Does the wind count?
Denard - couldn't throw, couldn't run, nowhere to go
The Denard/Devin carousel - this is getting tiresome already, if you want to bring Devin in that's fine but give him a series or something. A play here and there is taking everyone out of rhythm and not giving either QB a chance to get comfortable.
Everything else that sucked
The Good - Defense:
The defense really didn't play awful. They only gave up 21 points and didn't give up any home runs. However, I really can't point at anyone and say, he had a good game. The secondary did a pretty decent job I thought (in coverage not tackling).
The Not So Good - Defense:
J.T. Floyd in man coverage against the motion receiver - good God was this bad. Watch how out of position he is on the second Keshawn Martin TD when Martin reverses direction pre-snap (1:40 mark):
Woolfolk - he has got to be hurt, he was awful
Tackling by everyone - see video above
Everything else that sucked
Player of the Game
Michigan State's defense. They were put in short field situations time and again, whether due to the field position battle Michigan was winning late in the first half or because of turnovers by their offense, and time and again they came through. The Roundtree TD was the only time they didn't turn the M offense away in that situation. They came up huge when they needed to and they were the difference, no question.
If you didn't watch the game, this is a good summary:
Long day for 16 [Guralnick]
Next Week
Rest and get healthy. Purdue for Homecoming in two weeks.
Weather: High of 55, 40% chance of rain. 50 at kickoff with ~30 mph winds.
What to look for
Hard hitting, trash talking, bad blood, the joy of victory, and the agony of defeat. These teams don't like each other, that's no secret. Both teams want to win this one almost as bad as they don't want to lose it. For MSU, it's a chance to graduate a senior class that never lost to Michigan for the first time since 1962. For Michigan, a chance to send their seniors out with a win over Little Brother.
State will use a heavy dose of Baker and Bell, as usual. The problem for them is, their OL is not what it has been and the holes aren't as big as they used to be. If Baker and Bell get a ton of carries, that's a bad sign for M fans because it means that they are effective and/or State has the lead. Mixed in will be Bubbles to Keshawn Martin and downfield throws to B.J. Cunningham, both of whom can and will hurt the Wolverines. NW averaged over seven yards a pop on their Bubbles last week and Martin is a lot faster than anyone the Wildcats have. As far as Cunningham, he is a very good receiver that can use his size to get position on defenders and his athleticism and strength to make plays with the football in his hands.
Defensively, MSU will challenge the M receivers to make plays and Denard to make good decisions. They will likely rush four on most downs, relying on their front line for pressure and for clogging running lanes. The strength of the Spartan defense is their interior line, so M will try to hit the edges as much as possible. I expect to see more Speed Option this week and even some Triple Option out of the Full Gun look. I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan utilizes the Bubble a bit this week to try and get the outside 'backers to widen and give Denard some wider lanes to throw the ball through downfield.
Michigan's defense must take advantage of MSU's weak OL. If the front four can create pressure without having to blitz, things are going to be difficult for Cousins and the MSU offense all day. Zone Blitzes will be mixed in to get Cousins thinking and there will be a couple of pressure packages we haven't seen Mattison break out yet.
What will happen
Sparty will be conservative early to try and feel out the Michigan defense. Shocking, I know. That's the way Dantonio operates and I don't expect it to be any different this time. They will play field position and pick their spots to roll the dice. The wind will play a factor for both QBs as well as the kicking game. This will be a field position game and something like a kickoff out of bounds or a shanked punt (or a 70 yarder for that matter) can change momentum in a hurry. I think Mattison will be as aggressive as Dantonio is tentative and unleashes his dogs early. It's never too early to get in a QBs head and send a message. That message needs to be: All Day.
Michigan will struggle to run the ball, including with Denard. Short Zone coverage will be MSU's choice on passing downs to try and make Denard throw relatively perfect balls. The ball needs to be widely distributed to force MSU to play the entire field. A couple of Screens and Draws will slow down the Spartan pass rush just a bit.
Both teams are going to turn the ball over. Neither has been especially good at protecting the football, and the elements are going to have a hand in that as well. The winner of the game will be the team that is opportunistic with those turnovers and turns them into points for themselves.
The first half will be slow, low scoring, and kinda dull unless you are a die hard for one side or the other. I expect a 7-3 or 10-7 halftime score or something along those lines. The second half will build to a white knuckle finish.
Completely baseless predictions
The Michigan OL gives up more sacks in this game than they have up to this point all season (two) and the backs struggle again.
Both teams have one gigantic Special Teams play
Denard throws two TDs and two picks again
Mike Martin has a monster game and is in Cousins' face all day...
Last Week and Year to Date I haven't had a chance to add up my year to date but I was 10-3 ATS spread last week. This means, of course, that this week will be awful.
Note: All spreads used here are composites and are for entertainment use only. Do not use my picks for gambling purposes. This is just for fun!
Last Week in Review
A few weeks hiatus but we're back. No review as no post the last few weeks.
Must See
These are the marquee games of the weekend or games that are going to be really good (not always the same thing).
Michigan at Michigan State. Post for this will be up later tonight.
Baylor at Texas A&M. The Aggies are reeling after lofty early and preseason hopes. Baylor had their bubble burst a little in Manhattan a couple of weeks ago. These are two very solid teams and RGIII is so very fun to watch. Kyle Field is a very tough place to play and really is a true home field advantage with the 12th Man, however I'll take the Bears simply because this number is too big.
Oklahoma State at Texas. The 'Horns were embarrassed last week in Dallas, but that doesn't really tell us much. The Sooners will do that to anyone but a handful of teams this year. Okie State still has their mind in the sky as they are unbeaten, but this is their first real road test. Going to Austin is going to tell us if the Cowboys are contenders or pretenders. I think they win this one and cover.
Interesting
Indiana at Wisconsin. The only thing interesting about this game is waiting to see how many points Wisconsin will score this year. By now, you've been reminded of the 83-20 whipping the Badgers gave Indiana last year. This Wisconsin team is better and the Hoosiers are worse. Yikes. 39.5 is not near enough, give me the Bulldozers, er, Badgers.
Ohio State at Illinois. The Bucks are sitting at 3-3 on the season and the Offense is a punchline. Will they come out of Champaign with a losing record? The Illini are undefeated and looking to move to 7-0. I like the chances of Illinois staying perfect and I'll even give the three and a half.
Florida at Auburn. This is not the same game we've seen the last few years, but this will still be a good one. At least I think so. Florida doesn't have a QB and is in a bit of a free fall. Auburn is fresh off being cleared by the NCAA of the Cam Newton business (what a joke) and maybe that will clear their heads a bit. Now that I think about it, this game might suck. Whatever, give me Auburn at home.
If I Were a Gamblin' Man
A.K.A. I really like these lines:
LSU giving 17 at Tennessee
GT -7 at Virginia
Clemson giving up eight in Maryland
As always, please feel free to leave me a comment and tell me all about my glorious brilliance or tell me why I'm a freakin' idiot. Enjoy the games!