College Football, Week 1

Note:  All spreads used here are composites and are for entertainment use only.  Do not use my picks for gambling purposes.  This is just for fun!

Finally week 1 of the college football season is upon us.  There are a bunch of games tomorrow night, which means that it's time to make my week 1 picks.  First, a brief primer.  I used to hate having to look up what time this or that game started every Saturday afternoon and even worse, what channel is it on?  So I started putting together a list of all the games on TV each week so I could find what I was looking for or even forgot about.  Pretty soon, several friends asked me to email it out to them each week so they would have one as well.  Not long after that, I started adding the spreads to the games and picking every game against the spread.

I am by no means trying to come across as some sort of expert in this field.  I think I was about 55% last season.  Theoretically, you could flip a coin on every game and you should go 50% so I'm nothing special here.  This is just for fun.

SI.com has been a big help to me in doing all of this because they post a TV schedule every week.  All I had to do was add in the spreads and viola!  This year, they have added all the espn3.com games which, whatever.  They also seem to have omitted all the BTN games for some reason.  I am not going to go through every one of my picks here because you don't care and that's overkill.  My thought is I'll highlight a few games that are big ones or just interesting and that'll be it.  So here we go.

Must See

These are the marquee games of the weekend or games that are going to be really good (not always the same thing).

TCU at Baylor.  Well, TCU lost a few pieces including their starting Quarterback.  Baylor can't stop anyone but RG III is a bad dude and they are playing at home.  This should be a good game and could open some people's eyes to the fact that Baylor is not as awful as they've always been.  I'll take the Bears and the six.

Northwestern at Boston College.  NW is the darling darkhorse pick this year in the Big Ten (side note:  I refuse to use the moniker B1G.  It's stupid.  I wish it would go away. /end mini-rant) and not without reason.  Dan Persa can play and the guys around him aren't bad either.  Boston College has kind of been a train wreck lately.  Give me the guys in purple and the points.

Boise State at Georgia. Georgia will be better this year than they were last year, but they aren't back to where they've been.  Mark Richt is a damn good coach that the Dawgs will wish they had back once they finally run him off.  I think UGA would have been better off playing this game between the hedges rather than at the Georgia Dome.  Sterile environment or rowdy campus crowd?  Put me on campus and create that true homefield advantage every time.  Too much is being made of Kellen Moore losing Pettis and Young to the NFL.  They're still good and I'll take them and give the three and a half.

Oregon vs LSU.  This game has lost a little luster with all the goings on in Baton Rouge the last few weeks, but make no mistake, it will still be a pretty good game.  LSU will be without several key pieces, but they have plenty more bullets in the chamber.  I am looking forward to seeing the Oregon offense go up against the Tiger defense.  That's going to be fun.  The other way around, not so much.  Oregon is too much and pulls away a little towards the end.  Give me the Ducks and you can have the two.

Interesting

Akron at Ohio State.  The Luke Fickell era begins.  34 is a lot of points for a team in flux.  I'll take the Zips and the points.

Minnesota at USC.  The Gophers played Troy tough last year, only losing by 11.  New coach Jerry Kill has shown a tendency to get a lot out of a little.  What's USC gonna look like?  Should be interesting to see what these teams are all about.  Give me the Trojans.

South Florida at Notre Dame.  What I want to know is, how good is Notre Dame going to be this year?  I'm afraid the answer is going to be, pretty damn good.  I'll give the 10 and take ND.

Western Michigan at Michigan.  Duh, of course this is interesting to me.  Seriously though, how will Denard and the new offense look?  How much does he run?  Can the defense stop anyone?  Can anyone kick the ball?  Lots of question marks.  This game makes me nervous.  See my game preview on Friday for my pick on this one.

Rice at Texas*.  The 'Horns have a new coordinator on both sides of the ball and boy did Mack Brown hit a home run with both of these guys.  He went to Boise State and got Bryan Harsin to be his new OC.  If you have seen any Boise State games over the last couple of years, you know what this guy is about.  Then he went to Mississippi State and hired his new DC, Manny Diaz.  Michigan fans will remember him from the bowl game disaster in which his defense gave Denard all kinds of problems and blitzed on just about every snap.  I can't wait to see what these guys do with all the talent in Austin.  I'll take Texas.

*This game gets an asterisk because I'm not sure it counts as a TV game.  As of right now, the Longhorn Network only has one carrier:  Verizon.  How many people out there even have Verizon for their TV service?  I'll assume none of you have your hands up.  They better strike an 11th hour deal or two or this game isn't going to get seen by too many people.  Burnt Orange Nation is getting a little nervous about that down here...

If I Were a Gamblin' Man...

A.K.A. I really like these lines:

• Syracuse giving six and a half to a bad Wake Forest team
• BYU giving a FG at Ole Miss - I don't know why on this one, just a feeling
• Maryland getting five and a half at home against a disoriented and reeling Miami team

As always, please feel free to leave me a comment and tell me all about my glorious brilliance or tell me why I'm a freakin' idiot.  Enjoy the games!

Need to be Hyped Up? I Gotcha Covered.

There are a ton of "hype videos" out for this season already.  Some of them are excellent and some are not so good.  These are some of my favorites that I've seen.  None of these are mine, just to be clear.  Just sharing some hype and quality video with the Michigan Blogosphere.  Feel free to link to any of your favorites in the comments.

These first two are the best, by far, that I've seen.

The rest of these are pretty good as well, but the first two are a cut above.

Any Given Sunday voiceover on this one.  Always liked this speech.

And the Pop Evil one.  Not crazy about the song, kinda cheesy but whatever.

Guess at a Two Deep

Okay, I've kind of thrown this together using some info from press conferences/interviews as well as from my own expectations and bits from here and there.  I have no personal inside information on this and some of it is 100% guess.  First up, the offensive skill positions:

When I was filling this out, I fully became aware of how much Stonum's suspensions hurts.  I think having Roundtree able to stay in the slot would be invaluable.  Instead, he is forced outside to take Stonum's place.  The starting trio of Hemmingway, Roundtree, and Odoms sounds great, but when you start looking at what happens if one of those guys goes down it gets scary in a hurry.  QB is obvious.  FB is pretty easy to fugure out too.  TB is a spot that I think we will see a lot of guys.  Shaw is the defacto starter as he has been the guy that has gotten the "if the season started tomorrow" nod from Hoke and Borges on a few different occasions.  Fitz is the number two because he is most often mentioned right after Shaw.  You will see Smith, Hopkins, Cox, Rawls, and Hayes all get in some action I suspect.  The backups at the receiver positions are mostly guesses but likely to be fairly accurate.  You will probably also see Odoms a little on the outside and Dileo and Gallon will get some slot time.

Next up we look at the OL and TE spots:

The starting line is set and was given by Coach Hoke at his presser the other day.  The TEs are pretty much a given as well considering the other options.  Watson and Miller probably are not going to see the field much any time soon.  Again, making this scares the bajesus out of me as far as an injury on the offensive line.  We know Khoury can fill in for Molk and either Guard spot because we've seen him do it.  Lewan brought up Schofield as being at both Tackle spots and doing well.  He filled in for Barnum when he was nicked up recently so I stuck him there as well.  Elliott Mealer can fill in as well but after that we start talking Freshman and walk-ons pretty quickly.  Yikes.

On to the Defense, starting with the DL:

This is a little more murky than what we've done so far.  I think it's safe to assume that Roh, RVB, and Martin will be starting, but where will RVB line up?  He's been moving back and forth between the 3-tech and 5-tech.  Is Brink really gonna start?  If so, RVB will almost have to be at the three.  Who is Martin's backup at the nose?  I put Washington there, but I think he is mostly playing at the three as well.  Is BWC going to get it?  This unit sure could use his help.  Black is going to get some time at the rush spot and I think he's going to turn it on this season.

Next up, the 'Backers:

Again, some guessing here.  Demens and Cam seem to have their spots locked down but the Willie 'backer is still up for grabs.  Mike Jones is the most mentioned there so I gave him the nod.  Jake Ryan is getting a lot of mentions at the SAM spot and I think we may see him play early.  Hawthorne has been a little banged up but I think will get on the field as well.  Losing Demens is a scary prospect here.

And finally, we come to the Secondary.  This unit must step up for the defense to improve.  It couldn't be a whole lot worse than last year:

The starters are probably right, except for maybe Floyd.  Courtney Avery is pushing him hard for the starting CB spot opposite Woolfolk.  The second string Safeties are probably what you'll see with maybe a little Josh Furman in there as well.  Kovacs will be solid and dependable but man do I wish Marvin Robinson would take that spot.  His athleticism makes me drool, but his decision making is just too much of a liability.

So, there you go.  We'll see how close this may be in a day or two when the official is released.  Of course, you should expect the actual two deep to have a ton of ORs listed.  I expect almost every position to be an OR. 

Let me know what you agree/disagree with.

Programming Update and Other Assorted Bits

Okay, so obviously things have been busy and I haven't been here lately.  Part of that also has to do with me thinking about what I want this space to be.  I had originally said that this wasn't going to be another Michigan blog, but it turned into one pretty quickly.  There are so many others out there that do it better than I do anyway so why be another kid on the block?  Well, I am going to continue writing about Michigan sports because it is my passion, but perhaps not in the same way I have been.  I am going to try out some more football technical posts that I had originally tried to avoid because I felt the average fan/reader wouldn't really understand the in-depth stuff, but then I figured that I'd give it a whirl and see if I can't just educate said fan/reader a little.  I can't take credit for this idea, it was suggested to me by MGoBrian and I appreciate his input.

A few other things that you will (hopefully) see in the future:

• more non-Michigan content/random thoughts/stream of consciousness
• weekly previews of football opponents
• weekly recaps of games
• my Top 25 (weekly, after week 4)
• NFL and college picks against the spread
• some Lions content

I hope I can do all this as well as maybe some other things.  We'll see how it pans out.  Also, since the opener is a week from today and I haven't gotten the Opponent Previews done for anyone past ND, the rest of those will be scrapped.  Not a good sign for the bullets above?  I hope that's not the case.

Recent Goings On

There have been several bits of news since my last activity so I thought I'd briefly recap those.  

Transfers

There have been three transfers in the last week from the Michigan Football Team.  This is obviously not good.  It also, however, is not unusual.  Every program has attrition and it happens every year.  New Head Coaches usually experience more than returning ones (see 2008, Rich Rodriguez) so there is something to be said for the fact that these three guys are the first ones to go since Hoke took over.  The thing is, being part of a major college football program is not easy.  Not everyone is cut out for it, not everyone is going to get along with new coaches, freshmen are going to get homesick, etc.  I think Coach Hoke said it best at the press conference the other day:

I think you're always surprised, but guys gotta do what they feel is right for them. This isn't for everybody here, and it never will be. They're great kids, and we wish them the best.

Bingo.  I wish them the same.  There hasn't been any indication of the why for any of these transfers but whatever the reason, I hope they find a new team and success in their future.

The first to leave came on Monday when freshman OL Tony Posada was confirmed to not be with the program.  Posada came from a very good program in Tampa that had a great season last year with several D1 players.  Unfortunately, when Posada reported to fall camp he was not in shape at 340 pounds.  Speculation is that the weight issue may have had something to do with his departure.  A consensus three star to all four major services, I never really was optimistic about his chances at being a contributor at Michigan.  Still, this is a loss at a position that is paper thin already and is not good.

Next up was junior WR Je'Ron Stokes on Tuesday.  Stokes was a four star kid out of Philadelphia that I can remember being pretty excited about when he gave his commitment to Michigan.  I really thought that he was going to be someone that would have a solid career in Ann Arbor.  My initial thought is that this must be a depth chart casualty and that Stokes is headed somewhere for more PT.  I hope he finds it.

The most recent defection came from freshman TE Chris Barnett on Thursday.  This is also at a position that is very thin and this one really makes me nervous.  Barnett also reported to camp overweight at 280ish and had work to do to get himself into playing shape before any thought of contribution could be considered.  This is really not all that surprising.  If you recall during his recruitment, Barnett was once committed to both Oklahoma and Arkansas before signing with Michigan.  This kid went to high school in an area that I have a few friends and reportedly transferred high schools several times as well.  He was also involved with a shady character I don't wish to name in this space that I and most of my colleagues don't care for at all.  IIRC, his dad really wanted him to keep his commitment to Arkansas as well, so that would be my wild guess as to where he ends up.

I read a lot of opinions and posts regarding these guys leaving and what that means for recruiting.  First of all, obviously this means the way to 26 or 28 just got easier to get to.  More on that in a minute.  I also want to say that people that have said "Oh good that opens a spot for so and so" should really shut up.  I don't care for that crap at all.  Fans don't openly celebrate one of their own leaving the team so that someone else can be brought in.  That's garbage.  I think it was probably on The Fort that someone put it really well and said to those people something along the lines of "you people are the same ones that really want a kid to commit and then trash him when he chooses someone else."  There's no place for that IMO.

As far as the rest of the recruiting class, I think Stokes' departure solidifies that there will be two (if not three) WRs taken.  I've seen some speculation that Barnett might open the door for Ron Thompson, and I admit that was one of my first thoughts as well, but I don't think that's going to be case.  There seems to be some other issues with him that Michigan doesn't like (grades?) and would have to change for him to be a possibility.  I still don't think he's a part of this class in February.  I think Posada's departure makes it likely that two more OL join the class as well.

What the....  Seriously?  Why?

Dave Brandon announced Thursday that he had procured a deal for the opener in 2014.  I thought that this surely was some kind of sick joke or hoax as I was reading the Athletic Department's announcement.  Yes, Dave Brandon thinks it's a good idea for Michigan to play Appalachian State again.  What is the purpose of this?  This was a no-win game to schedule in 2007 and it's a no-win again.  Michigan is supposed to win this game so if they do then big deal, you beat a 1-AA team, woooo.  If you lose, then....well I think something like that may have happened before.  To someone.  I really don't recall.  But seriously, why does DB think that this is a good idea?  Or even an idea.  This is dumb.  Really dumb.  All this is going to do is reopen those old wounds and make Michigan the laughing stock of college football again regardless of the outcome this time.  The week of that game, everyone and their mother will be talking about last time and how many times am I going to have to watch the blocked FG and ASU celebration again?  What's the point of this?  Revenge?  Please.  There is no revenge.  They deserved to win that game and Michigan deserved to lose it.  This isn't a rivalry.  It's a not a local or even regional team.  I don't get it.  At all.  Really.  Really.  Dumb.  Did I mention I'm not a fan of this move?

High School Football Has Started

All across the country, high school teams are starting their seasons this week.  It's a great time of year.  Optimism is in the air and everyone has a shot at winning their district, beating their rival, making the playoffs, and winning state.  Young men are learning the game and creating lifelong friends and memories.  Also, members of the current recruiting class are beginning their final seasons and providing a small glimpse into Michigan's football future.  Good luck to my friends and colleagues, all the kids that are working their tails off, and the members of U-M's class of 2012.

I am going to try and put together a guess at what the two-deep will look like when it's released in the next couple of days.  I'll try to get that up tonight.

Commit #22

A little pressed for time, so this will be a little short.  Michigan received an enormous commitment today from four star DT Ondre Pipkins.  I say enormous because Pipkins is a large human at 6'3" and 320 pounds, but moreso because this was the giant glaring hole in this gem of a recruiting class.  I have opined in this space plenty that the DT depth going forward scares the bajesus out of me and that Michigan absolutely must sign two DTs in this class.  Let's have a look at the big guy:

Rivals Profile

The only film I've been able to find on him is premium content on the recruiting services so obviously I can't embed and you can't watch unless you have a subscription, so the above is an interview done at the end of last school year and posted by SpartanTailgateVids.  Michigan relevant part starts at 1:53 if you want to skip ahead.

I will give my own assessment of the film I have seen on him.  First of all, he is physically imposing in a high school film reel.  He plays the nose tackle which means he is subject to a lot of double teams, but he makes plays anyway because of his strength and power.  He has good explosion off the ball and uses his leverage pretty well most of the time, which is not easy considering most of the guys trying to block him are shorter than he is.  He sniffs out the ball well and gets after it, a quality I prize above most others.

Pipkins will likely see his ranking rise in the next round of re-rankings by the recruiting services after a very successful summer on the camp scene.  Perhaps his most impressive performance came at the Ohio State Nike camp where he was "unblockable".  There was no shortage of quality offensive linemen there so that's not a small endorsement.  There is some rumbling that his stock might even rise all the way into the top 100 on Rivals (currently he's #246).

Going Forward

Coach Hoke stated today in his post practice presser that Stonum unexpectedly being around next year will not affect the size of this recruiting class and is still expected to be 26.  That means just four spots remain.  With the largest hole on the roster at least somewhat filled with Pipkins, the coaches can be very selective from here on out.  Stonum returning means they don't have to take a WR, although I still expect them to take at least one.  Pipkins committing now means they don't have to have another DT (I still say they do but we'll see), but perhaps more importantly now takes some of the pressure off of Danny O'Brien to commit and gives him a little breathing room to go through the process like he wants to. 

There are still quite a lot of possibilities on the board and so few spots.  It is getting more and more difficult for me to decide who I think fills out this class and who gets left out.  Do they take another OL?  How badly to they want a RB?  What about the possibility of another CB regardless of Terry Richardson's status?  Just because this class is filling up certainly doesn't mean we will be lacking for drama.  It'll be very interesting to see how this all pans out.  This feels more and more like a shot in the dark as these spots fill up but here goes.  The last four go to O'Brien, Amara Darboh, Jordan Diamond, and Yuri Wright.  This would be an amazing finish.  Until then, stay tuned and Go Blue.

Suspensions and a Redshirt

Rivals has reported that Brady Hoke has suspended starting Punter Will Hagerup for four games for violation of team rules.  WR Terrence Robinson will also be suspended for one game for the same reason.  It's unclear if the two violations are related or not.  Hoke also announced that WR Darryl Stonum will be redshirted this season.  He will have one year of eligibility left after the redshirt.

Stonum and Hagerup are big, big losses.  There were some promising reports of Robinson really working hard this offseason as well and he could have earned some time in the slot as well as returning kicks.  I will update as more info comes out.

UPDATE:  Quote from Coach Hoke on Stonum via a press release:

“While it would be great to have Darryl on the field this season, we feel it is in his best interest and the best interest of our program for him to redshirt,” said Hoke.  “Darryl will continue to be an important part of our team and family.  He has done everything we have asked him to do, but our number one priority is to help Darryl grow as a person.” 

 

Coaches Poll Top 25

So the Preseason Coaches Poll was released on Thursday.  I'm not big on preseason polls and I kind of think that the Harris Poll has the right idea by not ranking anyone until the first month of the season has been played, but the fan in me loves the polls and the preseason poll is the universal signal that college football is cranking up.  Yes folks, the greatest time of the year is upon us.  Fall camp is starting all across the country and we are less than four weeks from the start of the season.  Hallelujah.

Here's the poll:


Michigan falls under the 'others receiving votes' category and would be #34 behind both Iowa and Northwestern.  That sounds about right to me at this point.  I don't know about being behind NW but they have the ability to be a pretty solid team this year.

Some Observations

Teams I think are ranked to high (overrated):

• Alabama - I know, they're loaded but I'm not sold on any team being #2 without a proven QB
• LSU - see above, questions at QB
• Stanford - Andrew Luck is a stud, but this is a team that caught lightning in a bottle last year and I don't know that they can do it again
• Oklahoma St. - this team has no defense (something M fans are all too familiar with)
• Texas A&M - this is a good football team, but they haven't shown me enough to be top 10
• Arkansas - big dropoff from Mallett
• Auburn - this is a completely different team without Cam Newton

Teams that should be ranked higher (underrated):

• Oregon - this may be nitpicking to say the #3 team is underrated, but they should be #1 IMO
• Wisconsin - the missing piece at QB is now in place
• Mississippi St. - losing Manny Diaz to Texas is a big blow, but Dan Mullen has got something cookin' in Starkville
• Texas - last year was surprising, but lets not forget the kind of talent Texas recruits year in and year out

Teams I don't know what to think about (wildcards):

• Florida St. - how will Christian Ponder's replacement fare?
• Boise St. - I don't ever know what to think about these guys, they just win games though
• Nebraska - how will they fare in the move to the Big Ten?
• South Carolina - this just seems like a misfit group, who knows what's gonna happen
• TCU - lost some big pieces, can they reload?
• Ohio St. - ummmmmmmmm....
• Notre Dame - does Brian Kelly's team crank it up in year 2?
• Florida - what will the Gators look like under Muschamp and Weis?

Lots of questions and speculation, but that's what the preseason is for right?  Feel free to praise my genius or point out my idiocy in the comments, or, you know, just tell me what you think.

The TRich Saga

Class of 2012 commit Terry Richardson wants to take official visits.  Coach Hoke doesn't want him to do that.  There are two major questions here.  Question #1:  Is he going to actually go on any visits?  If the answer is no, then there is no problem.  If the answer is yes, then we come to Question #2:  Will Coach Hoke pull his scholarship offer and pursue other candidates? 

Let's break this down a little bit.  Richardson is the highest ranked prospect in this class according to some recruiting services.  He has been interested in taking visits all along and really wants to go through the whole recruiting process.  He wants to take free trips to major schools and get wined and dined by the big boys.  Who can blame him?  He's 17 years old and may be wanted more right now than he ever will be again in his life.  He has the opportunity to take free trips to Alabama or LSU or Florida or USC and get to go to a high profile game and get told how awesome he is etc.  Hell, I want to do that too.

On the other hand, he also really wants to go to school and play football with his two lifelong friends James Ross and Royce Jenkins-Stone.  They are probably the reason he committed to Michigan in the first place.  That's not to say that he doesn't like Michigan a lot and want to go to school there, but it certainly played a role.  If you recall, the coaches put a lot of pressure on Richardson to commit and he didn't like it.  He ended up committing anyway, but I imagine it was presented to him as 'Hey, your two best friends are committed here, we're the hometown team, this is the greatest University in the world and we've got a spot for you but if you don't take it now we may not have one for you later' type of thing. 

This brings us to the second part of this.  If he does decide to take a few trips, does the coaching staff pull his offer and part ways with him?  Well, that's exactly the stance this coaching staff seems to be taking.  Word is the coaches will not allow committed prospects to take official visits to other programs.  If that were to happen, supposedly the player will lose his scholarship offer and the coaches will look elsewhere to replace him.  It's the old recruiting adage of 'a committed player that is taking visits isn't really a commit'.  I kind of have mixed feelings about this.  On one hand, the coaches are trying to do what is best for their program.  They have to look at it as a two way street.  They have offered the kid a scholarship which is a commitment to the kid in a manner of speaking.  If the kid verbally commits to the school, he essentially is saying that he accepts the school's commitment and offers his own in return.  If the kid then says that he is going to go and visit school X, then he is kinda going back on his word and can potentially switch his commitment to the other school.  It happens all the time.  Is it wrong then for the coaches to then say, 'okay well you want to go visit school X so I guess you're not really committed so I'd better go find someone who is'?  Another point worth mentioning is that the coaches have to be careful here because if they have told their commits that they can't go on visits and then they let Richardson do it, then they run the risk of losing some credibility.  This is the murky waters that is recruiting.

Richardson isn't saying what is going to happen, but he has spoken to the coaching staff about all this.  It won't be a secret if he does go on any visits so we will find out at some point.  It is worth noting that the Michigan coaching staff reopened the lines of communication with MA CB Armani Reeves and news has been picking up about NJ CB Yuri Wright in the last few days. Is this a sign that they have told Richardson that if he goes on a visit he is out?  Or are they looking to take another CB in this class?  Just a contingency plan?  Who knows, but it makes for some pretty good drama.  For what it's worth, I like Richardson's game a lot, but I think he is a little over rated.  Don't get me wrong, he is very good, I'm just not sure he's top 50 in the country good based on what I've seen.  I think Wright is the best of the three, but I wouldn't be upset with any one of them.  We'll see what happens but in the mean time, stay tuned and Go Blue.