Game Time: Northwestern

When:  Saturday, October 8, 2011 - 7:00 pm ET

Where:  Evanston, Illinois

Spread:  Michigan -7.5

TV:  BTN

You'll be Listening to:  Tom Hart, Derek Rackley, and Lisa Byington

Weather:  High of 81, Low of 54.  73 and clear at kickoff, 0-10% chance of rain.


What to look for

This is the first "road game" of the season.  I use quotes here because the Wolverine contingent at Ryan Field is always very strong and by some accounts half or more of the stands are sporting Maize and Blue.  You can't ask for a better setting to ease yourself into your first game away from home.  Don't be confused by what I'm saying though, Northwestern is not going to lay down and this game will not be like last week's steamrolling.

Look for Hoke and company to keep things simple.  Run the ball using the Zone Read, QB Power, and the regular power set.  Maybe they will sprinkle in some Sprint Draw just because it has been effective.  Short throws and screens.  Safe and simple is the name of the game on the road.  I'm not saying they won't go down field at all and that there will be nothing but vanilla, but road games, especially the first one, are no time to get too crazy.  Yes that very coach-ish and boring, but it is the smart way to approach games on the road.  Mistakes are magnified big time on the road and things tend to snowball on you in a hurry.  My thought process is something along the lines of:  simple, methodical, and deliberate early, wear down the inferior team a little, and then go for the throat.

Defensively, it's all about making Persa uncomfortable.  This kid is a good QB and despite his reputation for being a shifty runner, he can throw the football.  The fact that he is less than 100% (I don't care what Pat Fitzgerald says, he can't finish the game against their rival last week and now he's magically fine?) means that the pass rush has got to come consistently to force him to move.  The Achilles injury will make that difficult for him and I expect him to take some big shots as the game goes on.  Expect to see plenty of Kain Coulter as a change of pace to Persa and to try and keep Michigan's defense on their toes.

What will happen

Northwestern seems to be able to somewhat stop either the run or the pass, but not both.  Army ran for 381 yards on the 'Cats, but Illinois and BC both passed for 375+.  I expect the pass defense is the weak link here as Army had to run the ball 70-something times to get their 381 and didn't even try to throw.  Illinois can throw the ball a little but BC is awful.  This tells me that the NW secondary is ripe for abuse and I expect Denard to have his second straight successful outing through the air.  Fitz and Smith will split touches - Fitz will get a few more carries but Smith will catch a few balls - and each have 75ish yards.  Denard will run more than he did last week, but not as much as he did against Eastern.  Koger will get involved early to keep the safeties occupied and allow Denard to work the outside a little.

Defensively, look for some free blitz lanes as NW's offensive line will have to utilize some double teams with Michigan's front four.  Kovacs is especially dangerous here on the blitz.  I hope to see Hawthorne in the backfield a time or two as well.  I expect to see quite a bit of the nickle package and look for Persa to test Raymon Taylor if he gets the chance.

Northwestern is desperately looking for something to build on after losing a heartbreaker to the in-state rival last week.  Nothing would get momentum going more than to beat an unbeaten Michigan team.  Northwestern will throw everything including the kitchen sink into this game.  Trick plays, fake punts, you name it and it wouldn't surprise me to see the 'Cats try it.  Things will be interesting and this will be a tight game for at least a half, but M will pull away late.

Completely baseless predictions

• Persa plays well but can't finish the game
• Denard throws for 250+ and a pair of scores...
• ...and a pair of turnovers
• Hagerup is a factor
• A tight halftime score gives way to a big Michigan second half - Michigan 45, Northwestern 24