Game Time: Michigan State

When:  Saturday, October 15, 2011 - Noon ET

Where:  East Lansing, Michigan

Spread:  Michigan +2.5

TV:  ESPN

You'll be Listening to:  Ummmmm, ???????

Weather:  High of 55, 40% chance of rain.  50 at kickoff with ~30 mph winds.

What to look for

Hard hitting, trash talking, bad blood, the joy of victory, and the agony of defeat.  These teams don't like each other, that's no secret.  Both teams want to win this one almost as bad as they don't want to lose it.  For MSU, it's a chance to graduate a senior class that never lost to Michigan for the first time since 1962.  For Michigan, a chance to send their seniors out with a win over Little Brother. 

State will use a heavy dose of Baker and Bell, as usual.  The problem for them is, their OL is not what it has been and the holes aren't as big as they used to be.  If Baker and Bell get a ton of carries, that's a bad sign for M fans because it means that they are effective and/or State has the lead.  Mixed in will be Bubbles to Keshawn Martin and downfield throws to B.J. Cunningham, both of whom can and will hurt the Wolverines.  NW averaged over seven yards a pop on their Bubbles last week and Martin is a lot faster than anyone the Wildcats have.  As far as Cunningham, he is a very good receiver that can use his size to get position on defenders and his athleticism and strength to make plays with the football in his hands.

Defensively, MSU will challenge the M receivers to make plays and Denard to make good decisions.  They will likely rush four on most downs, relying on their front line for pressure and for clogging running lanes.  The strength of the Spartan defense is their interior line, so M will try to hit the edges as much as possible.  I expect to see more Speed Option this week and even some Triple Option out of the Full Gun look.  I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan utilizes the Bubble a bit this week to try and get the outside 'backers to widen and give Denard some wider lanes to throw the ball through downfield.

Michigan's defense must take advantage of MSU's weak OL.  If the front four can create pressure without having to blitz, things are going to be difficult for Cousins and the MSU offense all day.  Zone Blitzes will be mixed in to get Cousins thinking and there will be a couple of pressure packages we haven't seen Mattison break out yet.

What will happen

Sparty will be conservative early to try and feel out the Michigan defense.  Shocking, I know.  That's the way Dantonio operates and I don't expect it to be any different this time.  They will play field position and pick their spots to roll the dice.  The wind will play a factor for both QBs as well as the kicking game.  This will be a field position game and something like a kickoff out of bounds or a shanked punt (or a 70 yarder for that matter) can change momentum in a hurry.  I think Mattison will be as aggressive as Dantonio is tentative and unleashes his dogs early.  It's never too early to get in a QBs head and send a message.  That message needs to be:  All Day. 

Michigan will struggle to run the ball, including with Denard.  Short Zone coverage will be MSU's choice on passing downs to try and make Denard throw relatively perfect balls.  The ball needs to be widely distributed to force MSU to play the entire field.  A couple of Screens and Draws will slow down the Spartan pass rush just a bit.

Both teams are going to turn the ball over.  Neither has been especially good at protecting the football, and the elements are going to have a hand in that as well.  The winner of the game will be the team that is opportunistic with those turnovers and turns them into points for themselves.

The first half will be slow, low scoring, and kinda dull unless you are a die hard for one side or the other.  I expect a 7-3 or 10-7 halftime score or something along those lines.  The second half will build to a white knuckle finish.

Completely baseless predictions

• The Michigan OL gives up more sacks in this game than they have up to this point all season (two) and the backs struggle again.
• Both teams have one gigantic Special Teams play
• Denard throws two TDs and two picks again
• Mike Martin has a monster game and is in Cousins' face all day...
• ...and as a result forces two turnovers
• Michigan 23, Michigan State 20